The analysis – From Brexit to the ecological transition: supply obstacles and governments’ inability to predict crises

The analysis – From Brexit to the ecological transition: supply obstacles and governments’ inability to predict crises
The analysis – From Brexit to the ecological transition: supply obstacles and governments’ inability to predict crises

After two weeks of endless queues at petrol pumps, quarrels between motorists and avalanches of insults on social media, the government of Boris Johnson he decided to mobilize the army. They are the soldiers they are filling with fuel gasoline tanks, but if the use of the armed forces temporarily worked, the fact remains that in UK post Brexit there has been an economic crisis of the shortage. Those who are young do not know this phenomenon. The economic crises of the shortage were typical of the communist regimes, they didn’t have much to do with the production system, rather they were the product of distrust of the population towards those in power. For example, rumors spread that the toilet paper and everyone rushed to buy some stocks, someone said they had not found the detergent at the supermarket and in the blink of an eye an entire city bought all the packages. Result: there was no more toilet paper or detergent.

These extraordinary swings of the request created product shortages on the market also because the supply system it was slow, cumbersome, industrial stocks were minimal and in the end the products were missing for weeks. This is partly what happened in the UK. From September 2021 His Majesty’s government has introduced a new type of fuel, from E5 to E10, more ecological and less polluting, part of the ecological transition program. Of course, all gas stations had to to empty the old fuel tanks. Anticipating a shortage, motorists raced to fill up. Result: the lines at the gas stations were kilometers long, the pumps were empty quickly and many cars remained dry.

Nobody expected the assault on the gas stations and therefore the government was taken on the break because it does not reason on the basis of a post Brexit economy. In the UK they are missing about 100 thousand truck drivers, almost all Europeans: many have returned to their countries after Brexit and just as many do not want to submit to the new ones border controls to bring goods into the kingdom of his majesty. Truck drivers licensed to drive tankers are also a minority since they need one license particular. Under these circumstances, it was not possible to supply the petrol pumps for about ten days, until the army was mobilized.

The disappearance of fuel at the pumps is the prologue of what will happen during autumn and winter in the world. This energy crisis is also linked to the ecological transition, but this time it will be caused by the surge in prices produced by imbalances between supply and demand, it will therefore be a real economic crisis. Throughout Europe and the world, the ecological transition she ran into the first big one supply obstacle linked to two factors: the strong post-Covid economic recovery e the inconstancy e rigidity of the energy production of renewable. All of this created the perfect storm.

Again the governments were caught off guard: they had not foreseen this scenario, because we do not think in terms of the economy of renewables. In the hydrocarbon economy, the imbalances between supply and demand are resolved opening O closing i pozzi of oil, in renewables it is not possible to regulate the wind or turn off the sole. Another problem: it’s not easy to store renewable energy like fossils.

The question we should be asking right now, against the backdrop of COP26, is as follows: if the ecological transition did not become aware of these factors, what kind of green agenda have governments produced? It is important to do this because once again the crisis will hit us, customers. Since the beginning of the year, the cost of energy has risen by 400 percent, inflation in Europe is above the 4 percent, in the UK it is projected to be above 5 per cent by mid-2021 and the Bank of England is already studying how and when to start raising interest rates. In China 40% of factories are operating in fits and starts or have closed i flying due to lack of energy, in some regions they are already occurring blackout. Also in many areas of the South America sudden power failure is now the norm. The ecological transition is the last raft of our salvation in a constant stormy sea, treating it as a political slogan will make us all sink.

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