The pollsters have not guessed the electoral result in Germany but have identified the trend of the last few days: the German moderates (CDU / CSU) of Armin Laschet lost the elections but recovered on the Social Democrats (SPD) of Olaf Scholz, the winner of this election. Third the Greens, and fourth the Liberals while the AfD sovereigns lose something compared to the last legislature but remain above 11%. According to the first post-electoral projections, the SPD obtained 25.9% of the votes, earning more than four points compared to the very low 20.5% four years ago (and the 15.8% bankruptcy of the Europeans in 2019), mortgaging the leadership of the government. Appearing in front of a cheering crowd at the Willy Brandt Haus, Scholz did not indulge in easy enthusiasm. “Many have voted for us because they want a change, and they want the chancellor to be Olaf Scholz. We the outgoing vice-chancellor continued, we have what it takes to lead the country and keep our promises. Now we are waiting for the final result ». Between saying and doing there is 24.6%, almost the same result, also obtained by the Cdu / Csu Union of Laschet: a thud of over 8 points compared to 32.9% four years ago but much better than the polls at the beginning of September which indicated the CDU below 20%. “We knew that not being able to count on Angela Merkel would end up with a head to head, and we cannot be satisfied with the result”. In his first appearance before a group of disappointed supporters, Laschet tried to look forward. “For the first time in Germany we will have a government with three parties and whoever manages to put together the ideas to lead the country in the coming years will be chancellor.” The CDU candidate then imagined a Germany that is “more climate-friendly, more digitized, more open to the market”, essentially describing the draft program of a majority of CDU, Verdi and Liberals. A blatant and sudden invitation that indicates the weakness of the moderate leader: Laschet attributed the party’s poor electoral performance to Merkel’s non-re-nomination, but many in the CDU and especially within the Bavarian CSU, attribute only to him, perhaps the politician less charismatic on the square, the responsibility for the slip with which the CDU / Csu Union touches the worst result since the postwar period.
If the moderates cry, the Greens laugh bitterly. Having become the third most voted party with 14.8% of the votes compared to 8.9% four years ago, the Grünen get much less than 20.5% of the Europeans and about half of what pollsters attributed to them. last spring, when the party led by the young Annalena Baerbock seemed to fly higher than all. A short distance away are the highly courted Liberals, who rise to 11.6%, a point more than they had a year ago. The liberal party is tailed by AfD sovereigns, who drop to 10.8% compared to 12.6% in 2017 but are content to take home a double-digit result. On the other hand, the social-communists of Linke are trembling: from the 9.2% obtained four years ago they slide to 5%, that is to say on the level of the barrier. If the final count of the votes limits their result, the heirs of the GDR risk being excluded from the 20th German Bundestag which, so called the Constitution, must be convened within thirty days of the election of its members.