The pandemic film that we could see in the next two weeks is a remake of the one already shot in the UK, where the Delta variant landed earlier than us.
Because the projections developed by Giovanni Sebastiani, mathematician of the Institute for the Applications of Calculation of the CNR, are creepy.
From here to 14 days also in Italy, if the trend were to remain unchanged, we could count from 20 thousand to 32 thousand infections a day.
Which then represent more or less one sixth of the actual ones, given that the virus mainly affects young people not yet vaccinated, fortunately in many asymptomatic cases.
However, expanding the ranks of the undeclared, which would bring real infections between 120,000 and 200,000 cases daily.
Numbers that should frighten especially those 20 million unvaccinated, including 71% of hospitalizations in intensive care and 69% of deaths.
For young people, it actually means risking vacation quarantine. On the other hand, for the almost 5 million over-50s who are not immunized, it is a real threat to exchange a hotel room for that of a hospital.
The projections of the CNR expert account for the doubling trend of the increase in cases every 5-7 days and also discount the European effect on infections, as can be seen from the more than 500 new positives that are now counted every day in Rome, which was also the focus of the celebrations.
And it is no coincidence that Lazio is among the regions with the worst forecasts within two weeks, with a range ranging from 3,000 to 5,300 daily infections.
Even Veneto is not much better off with a forecast ranging from 2,700 to 3,500 cases, while Sicily fluctuates between two thousand and 2,700 and Sardinia between 1,100 and 1,800, which in relation to the population are still many.
Situation of hospitals
It will be said that at least for now there are no relapses in terms of deaths and hospital admissions, thanks to the increasingly high vaccination coverage of the population.
But that it is not necessary to sleep too peacefully, Dario Manfellotto, president of Fadoi, the federation of hospital internists who understand Covid and its variants, reminds us of it having so far assisted over 70% of hospitalized patients affected by the virus .
“Looking at what happened to the countries that preceded us, I fear that this growth in infections will end up generating an increase in hospitalizations for us too, even if not of the size seen in previous waves,” he says.
Asking the government to do more with the Green Pass, releasing it only after the second dose and extending it to the transport sector as well.
“And by acting decisively with respect to those pockets of unvaccinated that remain in health personnel,” he is keen to add.
“I think that by circulating the virus without control, in light of the fact that hospitalizations and deaths are at low levels, there is a risk that new variants resistant to vaccines will develop, so when assigning colors to regions, it is also necessary to take into account the incidence of cases », Sebastiani insists.
Not without emphasizing the importance of tests, for which “a minimum weekly threshold should be introduced for every 100,000 inhabitants for the regions.
Just as it would be important to sample swabs because the average age of the infected is low and the percentage of asymptomatic is high among young people “.
But in reality it is precisely the tracing of cases, essential to circumscribe the outbreaks, the first victim of this new surge in infections.
This was revealed by the latest weekly monitoring by the ISS, where “there is a sharp increase in new cases not associated with transmission chains”, which in a week went from 2,408 to 4,997.
All infected of which it was not possible to trace the close contacts, on average a dozen for each positive ascertained.
As if to say that we already have about 50,000 potential virus spreaders every week without their knowledge free to circulate.
Let alone when the number of daily infections will reach 30 thousand. Numbers that should make the Regions run for cover, which after hiring two thousand “virus hunters” in recent months have put them to do other things. Ignoring the lesson of the previous waves. –
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