The center-right appears as the protagonist of the political affairs of these days. Not only for the news, which arrived yesterday, of the agreement on candidacies for the administrative offices of Rome and Turin. But also for the hypothesis, circulated in the last week, of a federation between the two forces that support the Draghi government, namely Lega and Forza Italia. A hypothesis that, as we will see, has given a lot of work to the pollsters, in charge of testing the approval of this federation among center-right voters – and above all its electoral potential.
But, whatever the reason, staying at the center of the agenda seems to have benefited what is now by far the political area with the greatest electoral potential. In our Supermedia, now for the third consecutive week, the first two parties (ie Lega and Fratelli d’Italia) are both part of the center-right.
Curiosity: added together, today these two parties reach 40.8% of the consensus, exactly as in the 2019 European elections (when, however, the balance of power was enormously more unbalanced, with the League at 34% and FDI just over 6 %). Another rather curious element is the fact that the League records, for the fourth consecutive week, the exact same figure (21.5%). Confirming the fact that the growth of FDI – which allowed Giorgia Meloni’s party to overcome the Democratic Party, which stood at 18.8% – did not happen to the detriment of the Northern League, at least recently. The “suspicions” at this point fall on the 5 Star Movement, which this week loses another half point and drops to 16.4%. It is no mystery that the pentastellati are (still today) the “coldest” supporters of the Draghi government: Giuseppe Conte himself, in his recent releases, reiterated the support of the M5S for the executive, but without any enthusiasm. It is therefore quite possible that some of those voters are turning to the main opposition party.
Other recent news is the birth of a new formation, also in this case referable to the center-right area. “Courage Italy” is the name of the subject born from the agreement between the president of Liguria Giovanni Toti and the mayor of Venice Luigi Brugnaro. For now, it is a bit early to permanently insert this party (of which many Italians probably still do not exist) in our Supermedia. However, the first surveys carried out by 4 different polling institutes estimate Cor. it. Between 1 and 2 percent. The exception is Antonio Noto’s poll, which assumes a consensus of 3.5 percent.
All these movements could give an idea of instability (the very birth of Coraggio Italia was stigmatized by exponents of Forza Italia, even with rather harsh words). But they could also be interpreted as a sign of vitality. Proof of this is that, overall, the center-right is gaining ground this week, reaching 49.6% (a breath away from the absolute majority of voters’ preferences) and almost doubling the second political area, that is the center-left (without the M5S), steady at 25.8%.
Returning to the issue of the Lega-Forza Italia federation, on which analysts and background writers have already written everything that was possible to write, it remains to be seen whether this hypothesis is somehow “measurable”. Let’s start with its approval among those directly involved, namely the voters of those center-right parties that would be involved in this new initiative – whatever the form in which it will actually materialize. As mentioned, there are already numerous polling institutions that have investigated this variable. The most recent is that of Demopolis, according to which those in favor of this operation would prevail over those against, at least among the Lega and Forza Italia voters, but with a decidedly different “intensity”: the Lega voters are more “enthusiastic” (70% of positive evaluations), “colder” those of FI (44% against 31% of negative evaluations). Finally, the voters of FDI would be overwhelmingly against.
Similar to those of Demopolis are the EMG data. Also according to this survey, the center-right voters would be in the majority (56%) in favor of the federation hypothesis, and even in this case those of the Lega would be far more enthusiastic, with 81% in favor. Also for Euromedia, an institute directed by Alessandra Ghisleri, the Northern League voters would be the most favorable (57%), those of Forza Italia a little less (50%) and those of FDI the most skeptical (21% of positive opinions). SWG instead asked its sample of interviewees for an opinion, explicitly hypothesizing the birth of a training with Silvio Berlusconi in the role of president and Matteo Salvini in that of secretary, obtaining a response in all respects similar to that of Euromedia.
But how much would a pro-Draghi center-right federation be worth in electoral terms? To find out, we need to go back to the Demopolis poll. According to this survey, the rule is confirmed according to which in politics “2 plus 2 never equals 4”. And in fact, the federation would stop at 26%, 2 points less than the sum of Lega (21.3%) and Forza Italia (6.7%) separated. In this hypothesis, the Brothers of Italy would gain a point, rising from 19.5 to 20.5 per cent (and thus benefiting the discontented voters of the two disagreeing “federating” parties).
Would these numbers be enough to block the way for the federation project of a center-right government? Difficult to say, above all because at the moment the parties (not only those of the center-right) seem more committed to defining the candidacies in view of the administrative next autumn – and, secondly, to discussing the choices of the Government.
NOTE: The Supermedia YouTrend / Agi is a weighted average of the national polls on voting intentions, carried out from 27 May to 9 June by the Demopolis, EMG, Euromedia, Ipsos, Noto, SWG and Tecnè institutes. The weighting was carried out on 10 June on the basis of the sample size, the date of implementation and the method of data collection. The detailed methodological note of each survey considered is available on the official website www.sondaggipoliticoelettorali.it.