The great puzzle of the center-right is that of the federation between the parties of Matteo Salvini and Silvio Berlusconi: how much is the union between Lega and Forza Italia really worth? The project is still in its infancy and the unknown factor of Giorgia Meloni’s Brothers of Italy absence is difficult to assess. There is still no concrete survey because the project is not yet concrete, but the first revelations do not allow to spread optimism.
But there is a poll that seems to go against the trend. “A center-right federation – formed by Lega, Forza Italia and centrists – today stands at 31.6% but has a potential value between 34 and 37%”, emerges from a survey by Enzo Risso released by Adnkronos which includes, hence, also other central parties. “The federation would gather 5% of the voters of the 5 Star Movement, 2% of the voters of the Democratic Party, 14% of the undecided”, is the forecast.
Yet according to Fabrizio Masia, who presented a survey yesterday in Agorà, 63% of center-right voters would be against a federation between Lega and Forza Italia without Brothers of Italy. In favor only 24%, 13% do not respond. Renato Mannheimer, on the other hand, interviewed at Adnkronos, quantifies any political marriage under 30%, around 27 or 28, maximum 29.
Antonio Noto, from the polling institute of the same name, instead told Il Tempo that “We are talking about something that does not exist, and therefore it is all questionable. But we have confirmation from a survey”. The fact is that in politics “1 plus 1″ never equals 2, but at most 1.7. It has always happened like this. ”
The calculations are quickly made: “if in our polls the sum of our parties is 28.5%, in reality when we tested the single party we arrive at 25%”, quantifies Noto. In short, we are still on the high seas and the signs are mixed.