It is said that when he has nothing to do and feels well, Silvio Berlusconi start to do the math. Not on the parliamentarians of Come on Italy: how many they have left and how many are in danger of leaving. The abacus Berlusconi regards the votes that are missing to be elected al Quirinale. Yes, because on the plate of the unitary federation of center right, to entice even more the man of Arcore to say yes, Matteo Salvini he put Colle as his main dish. “If we get to the unique groups in Parliament, your candidacy for the Quirinale, which all the center-right will support, will have more solid roots. We will start from a stronger and more cohesive base… ”, is the reasoning that the Northern League leader made to the former premier. Which immediately came the mouth watering. It is also for this reason, it is said in the blue party, that this time the leader immediately said yes (only to slow down), setting off a bomb in the party. We will know how it will end in the coming days, when (barring further postponements) the Forced MPs will meet in Montecitorio, with warlike intentions. Meanwhile, however, the stone in the pond has been thrown.
But can Berlusconi really aspire to the Quirinale? Apart from him and very few others, even among his own hardly anyone believes in it. Too many are the judicial troubles passed by the former premier. Too many controversies, the read ad personam in the years of his government, relations with the mafia, the sex scandals, elegant dinners, the Parliament forced to vote on Ruby nephew of Mubarak, etc. Not to mention the fact that the man who divided the country for twenty years would be elected at the Colle: for or against him. In addition to that prejudiced, often prescribed multi-question and with heavy processes still in progress. Put all this aside for a moment, then there are the Health problems. The seven years as head of state would be demanding and tiring for anyone, let alone one 84enne who has spent the last few months in and out of San Raffaele. Hospitalizations that led to the referral of hearings e judgments in the trials in which he is accused.
But as among the liaison officers who unite League and Fi is told that “to the president only 50 votes are missing to be elected… ”, let’s go and see if the hypothesis is real. THE big voters of the next elections at the Colle will be 1008. The quorum to be overcome from the fourth vote onwards (when an absolute majority is enough) is 505 votes. Which is lowered to 503 if we consider that, as a matter of practice, the presidents of the Chamber and Senate do not vote. The center-right, at the moment, counts on a range of scissors on paper 453 a 460 votes. Or on the votes of Lega (196), Forza Italia (130), Brothers of Italy (56), Courage Italy (29), mixed pieces (Noi conItalia, Maie and others) and 34 regional delegates (due to the predominance of the center-right in the Regions). In the best hypothesis, and considering that everyone really votes for him, Berlusconi would miss him 43 votes, in the worst 50. Not bad. But still worse than the center left. If on the other hand they were all compact, including the renziani, on paper the center-left together with the M5S would reach 545: the threshold for the election on the fourth ballot would already be exceeded.
Berlusconi, as we have seen, is missing about fifty votes. And decisive, in this sense, could be the 45 Renzian parliamentarians: moving here or there would once again be the tip of the balance, also decisive for the Colle game. With those 45, however, the force leader would reach the finish line, al foto finish, playing it on the wire of 3-5 votes difference. Too few really. Also because in the secret in the ballot box it will be difficult for him to really fill his marks on paper. THE snipers, in this case, they are always on the prowl, as you well know Romano Prodi. And in any case such a small victory, of measure, has practically never been seen for the Quirinale.
But Berlusconi hopes so. With Renzi the dialogue has been dormant for some time, but it can always be resumed. And certainly the former mayor of Florence was never a antiberlusconian. Rather. The two have always demonstrated mutual respect. But the challenge, for the former Knight, remains at the limits of the impossible. Also because, despite an alleged wisdom from noble father arrived with age, for many Italians Berlusconi always remains the Caiman. And seeing it on the highest hill would look like some sort of nightmare, far worse than the ending of the film by Nanni Moretti.