For Italy, the agreement in principle on the minimun tax reached at G7 of London represents a political success and a potential revenue of 2.7 billion euros. But while the first is certain, reinforced by the fact that the US change of course at the basis of the agreement developed during the Italian presidency of the G20 and should lead to a broader agreement in the Venetian meeting of 8-11 July, the second is in the future. And to be translated into practice, it needs complicated as well as essential operational steps on the effective membership of the various counter-interested countries, on the relationship between legal rates and real rates and on the mechanisms for collecting and distributing the fiscal deficit borne by the multinationals concerned.
Saturday was the day of political celebrations. The premier Mario Draghi the EU Commissioner speaks of a “historic step” Paolo Gentiloni he calls it an “unprecedented global agreement” and the Minister of Economy Daniele Franco he says he is confident that in Venice “an agreement will also be found at the G20 level”. But implementation, Franco acknowledged, will take “a few years”.
The effects on public accounts
Calculating the possible effects on the public accounts of the various countries is the European Tax Observatory, the body launched by the commission about a year ago and not by chance officially presented on 1 June, on the eve of the expected “historic” agreement in London . The preferences of the organism, which is based in Paris and is headed by the French economist Gabriel Zicman, they are geared to a 25% tax rate, which would offer more substantial revenue.
By fixing the tax floor for multinationals at 15%, in the calculations of the Parisian body, Europe would be able to collect 48.3 billion euros, while in the United States the bill would stand at 40.7. The richest slice of the European tax pie would go to Belgium (10.5 billion), which, however, bases its aggressive fiscal policy on ultralight taxes for multinationals, which has ended up at the center of EU accusations several times, and with the Netherlands, Ireland and others. Countries raises major obstacles to effective implementation of yesterday’s agreement.
The revenue for Italy
The 2.7 billion Italian share, just over half of the 4.3 billion of French relevance, can be explained by some residual subsidized taxation encountered around the world by our (few) multinationals. Some are public companies, such asEni which operates in 72 countries and according to the Observatory paid just over 4.73 billion in taxes in 2019 and should add a donation of 171.5 million on the altar of the minimun tax, or theEnel, which should strengthen its 1.91 billion tax account with the activities carried out in 15 countries with € 356.3 million. The other sector concerned is that of banks, but only on the upper floors, occupied by Intesa Sanpaolo e Unicredit.