SCENARIO / The post-Draghi “party” that serves Italy and the EU

SCENARIO / The post-Draghi “party” that serves Italy and the EU
SCENARIO / The post-Draghi “party” that serves Italy and the EU

The scheme has changed, but some, like Conte and the 5 Stars, have not yet understood it. “The real question to understand the political structure in which we find ourselves is not who is opposed to Draghi, but who works to collect his political legacy” he told the Subsidiary Mario Sechi, director of Agi. For this reason the speculations on the will and plans of Conte and Travaglio to derail the majority make little sense. The real political issue is who will interpret Draghi after him. And it is a problem, Sechi observes, that the parties must ask themselves now. And Draghi? He will be the next president of the EU Commission, is his prediction.

What weight should be attributed to the background that would have Conte intent on destabilizing the Draghi government?

Assumptions are not facts. Let’s try to unpack the problem. The question is simple: what sense would that make? My answer is: none.

Yet, Conte was put at the door and tied it to his finger.

Attention. The M5s-Pd government has failed all objectives, let’s not forget that. In the end Draghi saved everyone.

Saved, he said?

Yes. The Democratic Party, from the fact that he embarked on an adventure with a partner with whom it was difficult to find a true synthesis of government. And it saved the M5s from the obvious shipwreck on vaccination and from having totally missed the objective of economic recovery.

C’era the pandemic.

He was also there when Draghi arrived. It was that formula of government that didn’t work. Moreover, the M5s-Lega formula had not worked. Yet some said that there were similarities, that both were “populists”. It must be said, and please write it down, that populism has infected everyone a bit.

No hard front with Draghi therefore.

I would say no. It would be useless, a suicide operation. In Rome they say it bounces.

What’s the point?

He wrote it well today (yesterday, ed) Giuliano Ferrara. We are faced with an unprecedented political event, a “lonely man in charge” who has no personal goals, devoid of pop narcissism, focused on business and with a precise working method. Disruptive. It moves in a “state of exception”, without triggering anxiety, reassuring with facts and a measured “politics of distance” from the parties. His arrival had been well motivated by President Mattarella. Here it is, Draghi.

Which analysis convinces you?

Ferrara stops at the liquidation of politics, the disappearance of the dispute, the forced quiet that ends in a quarrel between the parties over nothing. Draghi does everything. I would add one more thing.

You are welcome.

There is no political dispute because all possible government formats have failed. The only one left was that of very broad agreements, the emergency executive. A government open to all, and here is the entry of the League. A format not understood at the beginning, in fact Pd and 5 Stelle asked for “the perimeter”. Perimeter that could not exist, because it was the Quirinale that did not want it.

But it is clear that Draghi is barely tolerated by some of the parties that support him.

But so let’s get back to the intentions. The fact is that if M5s opened a hostile front with Draghi, he would carry out a kamikaze operation. The numbers say it: the supermedia Agi says that the approval of the Draghi government is very high (73.6%), M5s (16.4%) and Pd (18.8%) go down (respectively -0.3 and -0, 8), the League is stable (21.5%), Meloni rises (19.4%, +0.7).

Is it worth staying in the opposition?

No, because those who do it capitalize on something today, but when the Draghi government formula dissolves, in 2023, the political situation that has now crystallized gets back into motion.

I notice he said in 2023, not in ’22.

Sure. I don’t believe in early elections, because only Draghi can manage Recovery. Let’s try to imagine someone else in his place, with this or another majority. The country would become ungovernable.

Can Mattarella do an encore?

Yes, even if for obvious reasons he excludes it. But there is another important thing. To date, there is no Dragons party.

Do you envisage a Monti scenario?

Absolutely not. Draghi does not intend to and will not make any party. I mean that no party, so far, has been the interpreter of “dragonism”. The question is: in 2023, in front of the voters, which party will claim what the Draghi government has done without having to justify itself, make clarifications, show flags? We go from the vaccination plan approach to the economic rebound and the Recovery reforms.

At the moment this party does not exist.

Yet Draghi’s action is having real effects and his venture will be a success. We are about to witness a very rapid economic boom, a rocket restart. No one will have the strength to put Draghi in trouble, he would be like a snail challenging Carl Lewis on the track.

Why this success, in your opinion?

Because Draghi knows how to govern, how things are arranged and how problems are solved. His is a method, a method based – key word of dragonism – on pragmatism. And it has a very high consensus. It is not a detail.

Which subjects of the party supporting him could impersonate and continue the Draghi parenthesis?

One could think, on paper, that the natural candidate would have been the Democratic Party, but we have seen that this is not the case. Zingaretti even resigned when Draghi arrived.

Then the Pd of Enrico Letta.

I don’t think he wants a dragon party. It explicitly declares a left-wing program.

In the center right?

We get closer. Have you read Berlusconi’s interview with Newspaper? Here, that’s an element of dragonism. A pro-European, pragmatic Berlusconi, who proposes a tax reform, praises and claims the Draghi method (which for the Cav is the “Berlusconi method”, of course) in foreign policy, based on a realistic approach and constructive interpersonal relationships. And on the authority of Draghi, the pillar of experience.

Then it will be up to the center-right to impersonate the dragon.

I prefer to say that it is up to the liberals. Exist. And they are by no means few, they are simply not organized. But anyone who is liberal and Western can interpret the Draghi method. Returning to us, as we can see, all this overturns the schemes.

What do you mean?

In the sense that the real question to understand the political order in which we find ourselves nIt is not who is opposed to Draghi, but who works to collect his political legacy. Which certainly cannot be replicated, but it is always a matter of inheritance.

Corollary?

The opposition to Draghi becomes a boomerang for anyone who makes it from the inside with the intention of “breaking” or “folding”. It is another thing to do your own flag battle, as Conte and M5s will do, but with someone like Draghi it is still difficult.

Excuse me if I insist: why is it difficult?

It is equivalent to wondering why Draghi can say: I listen to everyone, but then I decide. Without objection.

Exactly: why?

Because his is a government born of a state of exception and at the same time, in this state of exception, it enjoys enormous parliamentary consent. And in the country it is majority and growing. The new normal it’s Draghi. Which is not normal. Draghi will be the premier who defeated the virus, reopened Italy, triggered the economic boom, consolidated it and implemented an investment plan of over 200 billion. With you? He is the one who won the Scudetto with Inter.

Another corollary?

Even if Draghi were to lack the support of a party on a certain issue, nothing would change: the majority is so large that it would also absorb dissent.

A convergence between two pragmatisms is conceivable, that of Draghi in Europe and that of a Salvinian-led center-right in the modify the treaties?

At present, no. But I think I can say that the Stability Pact will have to change and it will change. For objective reasons, not because we are talking about it now. The topic is back in the limelight because there are German elections, Sunday in Saxony-Anhalt and in the autumn throughout Germany. Schäuble and Laschet (Cdu, ed) are asking for a return to the Pact because they are addressing the moderate German voter.

Salvini’s League?

It is at a crossroads. My opinion is that he should try to join the EPP, but I don’t think this is Salvini’s plan, at least for now.

Are you referring to the call launched by Portugal to the European sovereign parties, to unite to be alternative to the PSE and the EPP?

Yes. Diversity cannot be overcome to the extent that Salvini imagines. Probably the leader of the League thinks that in Germany there will be a radical change of system. I don’t believe it. And maybe he thinks Le Pen can win in France. I don’t believe that either, because in France there is a double shift.

There is one thing that unites Pse and Ppe: the ordoliberal regime based on austerity and compliance with the zero point in the financial statements. Alla Schäuble, so to speak.

True. But the paradox is that the League, since it has existed politically, has ruled in the euro and with the euro. And now, with what Salvini defends, with his biased position on the right in Europe, it is less expendable, it confines itself to a marginal role in EU politics. If you want to count, you cannot be on the edge, but in the center of the political galaxy. The League has everyone’s problem: its own identity and its own transformation. Salvini made a masterpiece by joining the Draghi government and voting on the Recovery Fund. But where is his plan B?

What do you say?

The next moves are missing. And the way is that of re-positioning in Europe. The current one is a dead end. Salvini has to decide, change plans, and doesn’t have much time available.

Meanwhile, in the center-right there is a war of polls. Leadership is up for grabs.

I remain of the opinion that polls should only be looked at up to a certain point.

And why?

Because of “poll” we die. Whether your party is good or bad. The problem is not to do well in the polls, but to play the role that only your party is called to play.

Does that mean we’re going back to Draghi’s party?

Just to that. There is no problem of opposition, but of position. Faced with Draghi, these parties lack a map and compass, that is, they lack a broad political culture, analytical skills, managerial elements applied to the government machinery, international experience, speed of execution and psychology of the football player. chess. Draghi is dozens of moves ahead, he has already checked mate.

A forecast. Will he be the one to go to Colle in ’23?

I think Draghi will be the next president of the EU Commission.

In fact, if he were a Nordic, a “frugal”, a double-entry Taliban, we would be in trouble. Why Draghi?

It seems to me destined to become the reference point for European leaders. Once the era of Chancellor Merkel is over, hers opens, the gaps are filled and Draghi is in the right place at the right time. It serves Europe, and rebound is good for us.

2024 is far away.

No, it’s tomorrow. And Draghi serves to lead the Union in a world of iron and fire.

(Federico Ferraù)

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