Italy’s GDP estimates improve. The process of recovery of economic activity is consolidated with increasing intensity in the coming months. For Italy, sustained GDP growth is expected both in 2021 (+ 4.7%) and in 2022 (+ 4.4%). This is what Istat estimates in the Prospects for the Italian economy in 2021-2022. The Institute has revised upwards the forecasts for 2021 GDP, now estimated at 4.7% compared to 4% released in December.
In the two-year forecast, the increase in GDP will be determined by domestic demand net of inventories (respectively +4.6 and +4.5 percentage points) driven by investments (+ 10.9% and + 8.7%) and, with a lower but significant intensity, from household and ISP spending (+ 3.6% and + 4.7%).
In 2021, on average for the year, GDP would mark a marked increase compared to 2020 (+ 4.7%) driven by domestic demand which, net of inventories, would contribute positively by 4.6 percentage points; net foreign demand would provide a limited positive contribution (+0.1 percentage points) while that of inventories would be zero in both forecast years. The expansionary phase of the Italian economy is expected to extend also to 2022 when, probably, the implementation of the measures envisaged in the National Recovery and Resilience Plan (Pnrr) should provide a more intense stimulus.
In 2022, GDP is expected to increase (+ 4.4%) still supported by the decisive contribution of domestic demand net of inventories (for 4.5 percentage points) while net foreign demand would provide a marginal negative contribution (for -0, 1 percentage points).