The birth rate collapses in Italy, but not in Maremma. Grosseto among the eleven provinces that “grow”

The birth rate collapses in Italy, but not in Maremma. Grosseto among the eleven provinces that “grow”
The birth rate collapses in Italy, but not in Maremma. Grosseto among the eleven provinces that “grow”

GROSSETO – The Italian population continues to decline but Grosseto is one of the very few (eleven in all of Italy) provinces in countertrend. This was revealed by the latest Istat report which comments on the 2020 demographic indicators.

As of January 1, 2021, residents in Italy amounted to 59 million 258 thousand, 384 thousand fewer on an annual basis. Minimum of births and maximum of deaths: 7 newborns and 13 deaths per thousand inhabitants. Migration flows with foreign countries slowed down: the balance is +79 thousand, equal to 1.3 per thousand inhabitants, in the middle of 2019. Average age in further increase: 46 years as of 1 January 2021.

The reduction in the birth rate affects all areas of the country, from North to South, with rare and not significant exceptions. On a regional level, births, which on a national scale are 3.8% lower than 2019, fell by 11.2% in Molise, by 7.8% in Valle d’Aosta, by 6.9% in Sardinia. Among the provinces, confirming a rather critical general picture, there are only 11 (out of 107) those in which an increase in births is detected: Verbano-Cusio Ossola, Imperia, Belluno, Gorizia, Trieste, Grosseto, Fermo, Caserta, Brindisi, Vibo Valentia and South Sardinia.

Grosseto therefore goes against the trend not only compared to the rest of Italy (where the birth rate stands at 1.24), but also and above all compared to the rest of Tuscany (which has an even lower birth rate: 1.17 children average per couple).

In 2020, the Covid-19 pandemic produced effects not only, albeit mainly, on mortality but also on internal residential mobility and with foreign countries, even affecting reproductive (in the last month of the year) and nuptial behaviors .

With the exception of Trentino-Alto Adige, where an annual population variation of +0.4 per thousand is recorded, all regions are affected by a demographic decrease. The phenomenon affects the South more (-7 per thousand) than the Center (-6.4) and the North (-6.1). Molise (-13.2) and Basilicata (-10.3) are the most affected regions; among those in the North stand out Piedmont (-8.8), Valle d’Aosta (-9.1) and above all Liguria (-9.9).

Going down one level in the territorial analysis, the province of Isernia is the one that highlights the most critical situation, due to a rate of variation that in a year takes away about 1.5% of the population. In any case, there are numerous, and concentrated in the North-West, the provinces that in 2020 lose at least 1% of their population. In particular, the provinces of Vercelli, Asti, Alessandria and Biella in Piedmont; the provinces of Savona and Genoa in Liguria, those of Pavia and Cremona in Lombardy.

In the center of the country only the province of Macerata is in the same conditions while in the south, in addition to the aforementioned Isernia, there are also the provinces of Benevento, Avellino, Campobasso, Potenza and Crotone. Finally, in the Islands, the demographic decrease affects the provinces of Caltanissetta, Enna, Nuoro and Oristano. The province of Bolzano (+2 per thousand), on the other hand, is the only one to boast a positive demographic balance.

Due to the sharp increase in the risk of mortality, especially in some areas and for some age groups, which gave rise to 746 thousand deaths (18% more than those recorded in 2019), the average survival in 2020 appears in sharp contraction.

On a provincial basis, the correlation between the map of the spread of the pandemic and that of the survival lost on the basis of years lived is even more clear than on a regional scale. The specificity of some areas of the country emerges, most affected by the pandemic in its initial phase of explosion.

According to the Integrated National Surveillance System of the Istituto Superiore di Sanità, 75,891 deaths3 were recorded in 2020, directly attributable to Covid-19. However, as already highlighted, the absolute increase in deaths from all causes of death over the previous year was +112 thousand.

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