Rome, May 3 – (Adnkronos) – There are many similarities in the National Recovery and Resilience Plans submitted to Brussels by Italy and Spain, but there are also concrete differences: if Madrid “plans to invest relatively more in the digital economy, Rome has allocated more resources for the green transition and the updating of the energy production mix “. Godman Sachs writes this in an analysis of the two NRPs, signed by economist Filippo Taddei who points out how Spain aims to invest relatively more in green mobility, thanks to its role as a car manufacturer, while “Italy plans to use Recovery Find to restructure its health system, with over 1% of GDP destined for investments in this sector “.
The direct effect of the Recovery Fund – continues Goldman Sachs – will be an increase in GDP growth of 0.9 percentage points in Italy and 1.1 percentage points in Spain in the period 2021-26, with a cumulative increase in real GDP of respectively. about 4.5% in our country and 5.5% in Spain.
Taddei’s analysis highlights how “the deadlines set by Italy and Spain share two main characteristics”: firstly, investments financed by grants (and therefore ‘free’) will be privileged – from a temporal point of view – over projects based on on Next Generation loans; but above all “both government plans show a considerable degree of optimism in the ability to implement investments and absorb funding” of the Recovery Fund. In fact, the experience of Italy and Spain with respect to EU funds is underlined, which suggests a deviation in projects linked to loans which in turn will delay the full disbursement of grants until 2026. According to the estimate of Goldman Sachs where the Italian government plans to having practically completed the absorption of subsidies by 2024 (with a minimal residual share in 2025), there is the possibility that in reality in 2025-26 there will still be around 15 billion euros of ‘at no cost’ contributions to be collected.