Italy, the locomotive of Europe, OECD estimates on GDP

For once, Italy could be dragging the continent’s economy. Our country was promoted by the OECD with an upward revision of GDP growth: + 6.3%, more than all in the Eurozone and higher also than the United States. An economic rebound beyond expectations, despite the severe collapse due to lockdowns and restrictive measures during the health emergency and a general framework of caution for the resurgence of the pandemic.

Italy, the locomotive of Europe, the OECD estimates: GDP growing more than the Eurozone

The Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development presented the update document of the Economic Perspectives in which the Italian GDP is expected to grow in 2021 by 0.4% more than the latest estimates, thanks precisely to the exit from the anti-contagion restrictions and closures, with the consequent resumption of economic activities (here we talked about the record year of tourism in our country).

According to the dossier dedicated to our country by the international organization based in Paris, Italy in 2021 will therefore see a rebound of the +6,3% del Pil, with a gradually decreasing recovery in 2022 and 2023 of + 4.6% and + 2.6% respectively.

A brighter picture than the growth forecasts of the United States which should register + 5.6% (compared to the + 6% calculated previously) and of all the Eurozone countries which are averaging + 5.2% this year, + 4.3% in 2022 and + 2.5% in 2023.

Encouraging signs for Italy that despite the drop of -9% of GDP recorded in the year of the pandemic, much higher than the global -3.4% and the -6.5% of the euro area, it can aspire to recover the gap with the other great Europeans such as France and Germany (here we talked about the main goals of the G20 in Rome).

Everything will depend, as again underlined by the OECD, on theimplementation of the Pnrr with structural reforms to digitize and simplify justice, increase competition, especially in services, and improve the effectiveness of the public administration, all “crucial” objectives for Italy, together with tax reform to reduce the wedge and complexity labor taxes (here we talked about the OECD agreement on the global tax).

Italy, Europe’s locomotive, OECD forecasts on economic recovery: global uncertainty

In general, the prospects for economic recovery in the world, according to the document, are affected by the uncertain context of the pandemic, aggravated by the new Omicron variant (as we talked about the effects of Omicron on the economy), which will lead to a decrease in the economic recovery in 2021. globally al 5,6% (compared to + 5.7% in September), 4.5% in 2022 and 3.2% in 2023.

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