That of the climate change it is not a problem far from Italy. The scenarios in our country could change as much as in other places in the world where the environmental consequences of human actions are already assuming catastrophic conditions, such as in the Pacific atolls where floating plastic islands and rising ocean levels are at risk. the survival of entire sovereign states.
In Italy there is change, even under the radar as well as in its visible part. But what could happen, in the future, by projecting the current climate crisis? A few months ago the Minister of Infrastructure and Sustainable Mobility Enrico Giovannini asked a Carlo Carraro, environmental economist at Ca ‘Foscari, to prepare a report on the impact of change, concentrating the study within national borders. Carraro works in the IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change), and with the hired experts has prepared a document that illustrates the general effects of the climate region by region. The scenarios chosen are among the most probable and above all they are real, taking their cue from the incontrovertible data already available to the scientific community.
Well, according to what Corriere della Sera reports on the basis of this study, “the likelihood of suffering damage from extreme events given by climate change has risen by 9% in the last twenty years“. Average temperatures in summer would rise by 1.1% in almost the entire national territory since 2030 and up to at least 2050. An example above all: in Sicily, Calabria (Ionian side) and Sardinia (Tyrrhenian-southern belt) there should be a decrease in rainfall, to the detriment of agriculture and of biodiversity. And that’s the best case.
If humanity does not understand the problem, allowing pollution to act again without avoiding an increase in world temperatures of 3 degrees Celsius, Sicily would lose 14% of its rains, with drought in almost all of the central-southern part of the country. In the north-west, on the other hand, more rains and floods would arrive, up to 12% more than normal. But that would not stop the reduction of the snow cover in the Alps e the retreat of glaciers. The increase in the water level, with projections up to 2100, could be in a range between 50 and 80 centimeters, with really big consequences for tourism, especially as regards the Adriatic coast.
According to the study, the most economically affected regions could be Campania, Emilia-Romagna, Marche, Sardinia and above all the Veneto (due to the rising sea level over Venice). The social consequences should not be underestimated, with climate migrants changing Italy from a demographic point of view.