Boom inflation in Italy: + 3% in October. What does it mean and where do prices go up

Boom inflation in Italy: + 3% in October. What does it mean and where do prices go up
Boom inflation in Italy: + 3% in October. What does it mean and where do prices go up

Rome, November 16, 2021 – New surge ininflation in Italy: in October it increased for the fourth consecutive month, from the negative variation of December 2020 a level of growth was reached “which had not been recorded since September 2012 (when it was equal to 3.2%)”. To detect it is l‘State which estimates an increase in 0.7% on a monthly basis and 3.0% on an annual basis (+ 2.5% compared to the previous month) of‘index national consumer price for the whole community (NIC), gross of tobaccos. The preliminary estimate was + 2.9%. At the moment we are at + 1.8% of acquired inflation for the general index in 2021 e + 0.8% of the core component which is calculated net of energy and fresh food. And it is precisely the prices of energy goods to have pushed up inflation, with an increase – albeit to a lesser extent – also in the prices of transport services in October over September. The implications and consequences of these increases are interpreted by Confesercenti and Codacons who respectively estimate a strong impact on the volume of consumption and a sting of 922 euros per year for a “typical” family. An alarming combination that raises threatening clouds over Christmas shopping.

Summary

But what are the sectors where inflation is galloping the most? At the level tendential (i.e. compared to the same month of 2020) the prices of energy goods went from + 20.2% in September to + 24.9% in October: those of the component regulated by +34,3% a +42,3% and the prices of the unregulated one from + 13.3% to + 15.0%.

The prices of transport services also accelerated compared to September, but to a lesser extent (from + 2.0% to + 2.4%). The “core inflation” rose in the month under review from + 1.0% to + 1.1%, while that net of energy goods alone remained stable at + 1.1%.

As for the cyclical increase (compared to the previous month) in the general index, Istat explains that it is mainly due to the growth in the prices of regulated energy goods (+ 17.0%) and only to a lesser extent to that of energy prices. non-regulated (+ 1.0%) and of Unprocessed food (+0,7%).

On the other hand, they decrease for reasons that mostly depend on seasonal factors, unlike the increase recorded at a trend level, the prices of transport services (-0.7%). Recreational, cultural and personal care services also fell (-0.3%).

its annual basis the prices of goods accelerate (from + 3.6% to + 4.2%), while the growth of those of services is stable (+ 1.3%). Accelerate i prices of food, for home and personal care (from + 0.9% to + 1.0%) and those of products with a high frequency of purchase (from + 2.6% to + 3.1%). The harmonized index of consumer prices (HICP) recorded an increase of 0.9% on a monthly basis and of 3.2% on an annual basis (from + 2.9% in September); the preliminary estimate was + 3.1%

Let’s go and see what the prices recorded on fuels are, among the main components that drive inflation. Brent is recovering towards 83 dollars while the prices of refined products are down.

These are the averages of the prices communicated by the managers to theObservatory prices of the Ministry of Economic Development and processed by the Staffetta Quotidiana, detected at 8 yesterday morning on about 15 thousand plants:
self-service petrol at 1,749 euros / liter (unchanged, 1,755 companies, 1,734 white pumps)
diesel at 1,615 euros / liter (unchanged, 1,619 companies, white pumps 1,604)
petrol served at 1,879 euros / liter (+1 thousandth, 1,922 companies, 1,788 white pumps)
diesel at 1,752 euros / liter (unchanged, 1,797 companies, 1,659 white pumps)
LPG served at € 0.830 / liter (unchanged, companies 0.838, white pumps 0.821)
methane served at 1,655 euros / kg (unchanged, 1,722 companies, 1,599 white pumps)
LNG 2,169 euros / kg (+15, companies 2,172 euros / kg, white pumps 2,166 euros / kg).

These are the prices on the motorways:
self-service petrol 1,837 euros / liter (2,048 served)
self-service diesel fuel 1,715 euro / liter (served 1,952)
LPG 0.927 euros / liter,
methane 1,943 euros / kg
Gnl 2,224 euro/kg

These are the prices of refined products in the Mediterranean at yesterday’s closing:
petrol at € 502 per thousand liters (-4, rounded values)
diesel at 512 euros per thousand liters (-8, rounded values).

These are the values ​​including excise duty:
petrol at 1,230.29 euros per thousand liters
diesel at € 1,129.65 per thousand liters.

These data prompt the president of Confesercenti, Patrizia De Luise, to sound the alarm: “Higher inflation could subtract, in 2 years, 9.5 billion euros of consumption: about 4 billion this year and 5.5 billion in 2022 “, says De Luise, stressing that” the recovery in consumption will be slower than that of GDP. “She adds:” At the end of 2022 the volume of consumption could remain at below the pre-pandemic level, with a residual gap of about 20 billion “. The conclusion:” The pandemic has impoverished the Italians. At the end of 2021, the average household income will still be 512 euros below the pre-crisis levels. “Among the consequences of the pandemic there is therefore also a prudence in consumption which translates into a loss” between 35 and 40 billion per year “.

According to Codacons, on the basis of the data released today by Istat, consumers are expected to suffer a sting equal to +922 euros per year. ” We are in the presence of a real price emergency, with inflation rising to + 3% in October, realizing a heavy sting equal to +922 euros on an annual basis for the ” typical ” family – denounces the president Carlo Rienzi – These are the highest values ​​recorded in the last 9 years, an upward trend which unfortunately confirms our alarms and which will continue in the coming weeks ”.

“To drive prices, once again, the expensive energy, with the electricity and gas bills that have undergone enormous increases in October, and the relentless rush of fuel prices, which today cost 30% more at the pump. compared to last year – continues Rienzi – We are in the presence of a real Christmas alarm, because the rise in retail price lists will erode the purchasing power of families, causing cuts on theronte of consumption related to holidays, with citizens reacting to price increases reducing spending ”.

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