Italy will recover pre-Covid GDP levels “probably or almost certainly” in the first quarter of 2022. This was stated by the Minister of Economy, Daniele Franco, at the end of the Ecofin. Franco recalled that previously he expected the achievement of pre-Covid GDP in the second or third quarter.
The minister then also spoke about inflation. “In Europe it is expected that it will peak during the winter and then take a calming path in the next year. In the meantime, in Italy it is at lower values and this allows the country to regain competitiveness”, he said. Regarding the entire euro area, “the idea, shared by the EU Commission and the ECB, is that inflation will peak this winter and then subside in the next year”, continued Franco. “This does not mean that it converges on the levels of a year ago, which were very low, but it does mean getting out of the current situation”.
In Italy, as mentioned, inflation is at lower levels. For Franco, core inflation (the one without the more volatile components) stood at around 1.3%. “In Italy the inflation dynamics are significantly lower, we will see how temporary this is but it has been dragging on for some time and this helps us to regain some competitiveness. And this is also demonstrated by the dynamics of Italian exports, which in recent quarters it has been very favorable “.