This is how Sala has (re) conquered Milan

This is how Sala has (re) conquered Milan
This is how Sala has (re) conquered Milan

It is not at all usual to be able to compare the voting maps of the main urban centers of our country with each other. And yet, never before do the great Italian cities look alike: low participation e success of the center left are the two most natural observations regarding the outcome of the last administrative.

On closer inspection, in Milan there were two observations that emerged 5 years ago, but today they both rely on much more consistent numbers: when two observations are repeated more intensely after 5 years, then, we can only speak of consolidation trend.

20 years of walking

The political geography of the Lombard capital over the last 20 years has witnessed profound changes in the behavior of voters, often anticipating national political trends. The last two center-right mayors were elected in the first round (Albertini in 2001 and Moratti in 2006). Pisapia brought the city back to the left almost by surprise in 2011, anticipating the sunset of “Berlusconi”, while Living room he won more lukewarmly 5 years later in the ballot (like Pisapia). Today Milan seems more involved than one consolidated national dynamics, not to mention European, which sees the great metropolises firmly in progressive hands.

On the other hand, as Calvino said when describing the city of Despina, Milan too “receives its shape from the desert it opposes”: among all the other 7 higher municipalities (ie with at least 15,000 inhabitants) of the Metropolitan Cityturnout was higher e the center-right beat the center-left in 6 out of 7 municipalities, 4 of which were administered by the center-left.

In short, a plastic index of the strengthening of that fracture “City-Province”, even more evident than the “Center-Periphery” which today rediscovers a key role in the political competition of our country.

The maps of the vote

Inside, the city has also changed. 2016 and 2021 marked two major trend reversals that would not be easy to appreciate in the absence of detailed maps.

The following have been made by estimating the geographical distribution of the vote on 51,323 house numbers present in the city, based on the data of the respective 1,248 constituencies of belonging and reporting it within the 6,079 parcels from the census.
The level of detail is very high, especially in the more urbanized areas. On the other hand, the accuracy is naturally affected and the data of the more rural areas may appear amplified by the size.

To avoid distortion, sections with less than 50 voters, for which many health facilities, as well as some parks, remain transparent (therefore they are gray).

Finally, to emphasize the differences between neighborhoods, the definition of colors was constructed by interpolating per quintili. For the less “insiders” it will be enough to pay attention to the scale under each map to easily understand the meaning of this necessary distortion.

The winners

The trend is clear: Sala clearly wins in internal areas delimited by 90/91, as they say in Milan, or from the external circular trolleybus line. However, there are not a few clear victories also in the peripheral areas, in particular in the Municipality 3 (Lambrate, Città studi) and in the neighborhoods best connected to the center. Just imagine the subway: the axes of M1 on Viale Monza and the two western branches, M2 from the NIL of Cimiano to the Piazza area Abbiategrasso, M3 tra Affori e Rogoredo, M5 between Bicocca and it Stadium.

Bernardo wins in a few areas, mainly peripheral: exemplary the most popular areas of Fourth Oggiaro (between the streets Castellammare and Amoretti), that of San Siro (Piazza Selinunte) and that of Gratosoglio, but also the area north of Armed forces, the Gallaratese, Bovisasca and the most popular sections of the Corvetto.

A “gem”: there is only one section in the whole of Milan that did not go to Sala or to Bernardo. It is among those removed from the map because it has fewer than 50 voters, 44 to be exact, and it is one of them hospital sections of the San Carlo Hospital of Famagusta, won with 16 votes by Teodosio De Bonis, Candidate Mayor of Moving 3V.

The turnout

The general figure of the turnout in the city in the first round has dropped steadily over the years: 67,6% in 2011, 54,7% in 2016 and 47,7% in 2021, the lowest ever.
However, it is difficult to locate major upheavals, even if the more attentive eye will notice, in proportion, a slight decrease between the peripheral sections and an increase close to the center and in some sections of the municipality 1. In absolute terms, abstention increases everywhere but in the suburbs more.

The center left

These center-left maps show the first major upheaval, which occurred mainly in the years of the Renzian secretariat of the Democratic Party. Confirmation of the centripetal tendenza of the center-left electorate, with a few red-colored sections outside of 90/91 (about 1-2 km further outside the border of Municipality 1).

The Municipality 3 (the upper segment of the two with an outlet to the east) is confirmed as a feud of Sala, but the most important pool of votes is undoubtedly represented by the area of Genoa gate and gods Navigli, the central area most inclined to the progressive vote since the time of Pisapia.

The center-right

Nothing is taken for granted. While the metamorphosis on the left took place between 2011 and 2016, on the right the centrifugal thrust appears between 2016 and 2021. Stefano Parisi in 2016 still conquered the historic center, despite the first important peripheral sections.

Of Municipality 1, only one hard core in the north-eastern area of Porta Venezia between Corso Monforte and Corso di Porta Nuova. Most of Bernardo’s votes, however, came from the more peripheral neighborhoods.

The 5 Star Movement

Rise and decline in 10 years for the 5 Star Movement, which in Milan never broke through. The 5 stars reached their maximum in 2016 with 10% and peaks above 20% in the suburbs. The candidacy of Layla Pavone, manager supported by former Prime Minister Giuseppe Conte, has mixed up the cards and partly broke the center-suburbs polarization of 5 years earlier. In terms of absolute numbers, the Milanese figure sounds like a resounding defeat for the Movement, which does not reach the threshold: the renewed City Council is in fact composed solely of lists in support of Sala and Bernardo.

(Fonte You Trend)

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