Covid-19 epidemic resuming in Italy. For the past week, one person for every 16 new individuals tested is positive, an increase compared to the previous week. The regions most at risk are Friuli Venezia Giulia, Veneto, Umbria, Emilia Romagna, at least according to an index that takes into account five factors that affect the trend of the epidemic: the proportion of new positives among the tested, the incidence of infections , the stress on intensive care, mortality and the proportion of the unvaccinated population. This is what emerges from the 71st episode of the Instant Report Covid-19, an initiative of the High School of Economics and Management of Health Systems (Altems) of the Catholic University of systematic comparison of the trend in the spread of Sars-Cov-2 at a national level .
“The composite epidemic index developed by the Altems shows new elements of concern for the resumption of the pandemic”, says Americo Cicchetti, director of the high school.
“The index – he continues – shows that four Regions are currently in a scenario on which to pay more attention”. The data, as of 25 October, show – indicates the Report – that the percentage of cases currently positive (n = 74,654) in the national population is equal to 0.13% (stable compared to the data of 18 October). The percentage of cases (n = 4,743,720) in the Italian population is increasing, passing from 7.91% to 7.95%.
As for lethality (death ratio on positives) in the last week the highest figure is recorded in Sardinia, and is equal to 5.15 per 1,000 inhabitants and in Friuli-Venezia Giulia equal to 5.13 per 1,000, despite being far from the maximum recorded in March. As for the mortality figure (ratio of deaths to population) in the last week, at national level, it is equal to 0.36 (apparent crude mortality), a slight decrease compared to the data of October 18 (0.39 x 1,000). The highest data is recorded in Friuli-Venezia Giulia at 0.75 followed by Sicily at 0.70 and Lazio at 0.59.