the Lega cases (which falls in the government) and M5S (down by another 0.9%)

the Lega cases (which falls in the government) and M5S (down by another 0.9%)
the Lega cases (which falls in the government) and M5S (down by another 0.9%)

Not just mayors and more or less unprecedented alliances. The vote for the administrative elections ended on Monday also outlined the features of the new national political context which, after the unity of government that characterized these first months of Draghi I, will guide the rest of the legislature passing through the watershed of the election of the President of the Republic. And the situation, polls in hand, is significantly changing. Having acquired that the abstention proved decisive in this round, according to the survey on voting intentions for Porta a Porta carried out by Alessandra Ghisleri of Euromedia Research, the Pd by Enrico Letta would be the first party with 19.5 percent if we went to the vote today.

Political polls, the situation from left to right

That is, net of the triumph at the municipal, it gained 0.1 percent compared to the previous survey of 14 September. Staying ahead of Meloni’s Brothers of Italy with 19.2 percent (it also grew by 0.1 percent). So far nothing sensational. But looking further back in the hypothetical ranking, some landslides can be found.

Berlusconi, race (uphill) for the Colle. Then the Cav will look to the center

The third political force, in fact, is Salvini’s League at 17.6 percent, with a drop of 0.9 percent. In practice, the Carroccio pays more than FdI for the wrong choice of candidates in the cities and the scandals – real or presumed – that have overwhelmed both parties (the Fanpage inquiries and the Morisi affair, now deflated). But what is costing Salvini dearly is above all being inside the government. This position, in fact, on the one hand consolidates certain historical votes of the League in the North-East, on the other hand it makes new votes of protest flow towards abstention, the consensus built by the “beast”. Similarly, confirming the disastrous trend of the vote in the territories, the 5Stelle Movement led by Conte also loses 0.9 percent and stops in fourth position at 16.2 percent. A collapse that if the former premier fails to compact the troops as soon as possible (and judging by the defections in the Chamber following the appointment of the pentastellated vice-presidents, the mission is far from simple) risks becoming impossible to recover closely round. Especially because looking at the satisfaction of the leaders detected by the Pagnoncelli Institute, the most important difference compared to the end of July concerns Conte himself who, while remaining at the top of the ranking with an index equal to 43, recorded a decrease of 8 points. Conversely, Letta (32), Berlusconi (30) and Calenda (28) and Renzi (14) increase by 3 points.

Rome, from Tor Bella Monaca to Ostia: a journey through the non-voting districts. “We, forgotten by politics”

Going back to the picture of the main parties drawn by the Euromedia survey, Forza Italia instead earns 0.8 percent and a hypothetical immediate vote could count on 8.1 percent of the preferences. In this case, however, the Knight’s party deserves a separate discussion. First of all, as the political scientist and expert in electoral systems Roberto D’Alimonte points out, with the current system, without the 8 percent of Fi, Salvini and Meloni would have to conquer 70 percent of the constituencies to go to the government. With the Azzurri, on the other hand, the share drops to 60 percent. A decisive role in practice. Moreover, given the obvious and difficult reorganization underway (with ministers and party leaders not exactly in tune to put it mildly) Fi is now struggling to find a place. If it is true that Berlusconi has already relaunched his role in the center-right alliance, it is not excluded that a portion of that 8.1 percent treasure could end up elsewhere. Indeed, the sirens of a center formation could attract parliamentarians more than any other political formation. Even emptying a bit of meaning from the classic sum of the votes between center-right and center-left. In fact, at the moment the painting would see the coalition of Fdi-Lega-Fi (and other smaller parties) get 46.1 percent, while that of Pd-M5S-Sinistra Italiana-MDP-Art.1 would stop at 38.6 percent.

Gualtieri, immediately extraordinary cleaning of Rome. Giunta: Melandri hypothesis to Culture

However, should the center formation become a reality, the gap would narrow, also capitalizing on the space available to the other small parties. For example, again according to Ghisleri, after the recent performance recorded in the elections for the Municipality of Rome, Action of Calenda grew to 4.5 percent (+0.7 percent). The federation of the Greens stood at 2.1 (+0.1) and Italia Viva di Renzi at 2 percent. (-0.8 percent). Then follow, MDP-Art.1 at 1.5 percent, Sinistra Italiana 1.4 and + Europa 1.2.

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