Polls, Pd and Letta have overtaken Lega and Salvini. Conte loses 8 points yet remains the party leader with the highest rating

Polls, Pd and Letta have overtaken Lega and Salvini. Conte loses 8 points yet remains the party leader with the highest rating
Polls, Pd and Letta have overtaken Lega and Salvini. Conte loses 8 points yet remains the party leader with the highest rating

It will also have several “torments”As the headline Corriere della Sera and the multiplication of mutterings within the parliamentary groups is certainly the news of all the newspapers 5 stars. But according to the same Courier service the most welcome political leader to date is the former Prime Minister and current head of the Movement Giuseppe Conte, albeit down from this summer. The figure emerges from Ipsos survey which is published monthly by the newspaper RCS. The other relevant element is that, albeit slightly, the Democratic party it would be the first party. And almost with a paradox because it seems like a game of winnings: all four main political forces are holding back (Pd, League, Brothers of Italy, M5s) but from this race backwards, in fact, the primacy of the Democrats emerges at the moment. Finally, the approval for the Prime Minister remains very high Mario Draghi, albeit declining.

The strength (so to speak) of the parties
According to the institute headed by Nando Pagnoncelli the Pd to date could count on 20,7 per cent of approval, a slight decrease of 0.2 (almost insignificant) compared to the last survey in October. The Democrats in these three months have overtaken the League which records the most evident slowdown among the major parties (-1.1) and passes from 21.1 to 20 net. It also slows down Brothers of Italy, after the great climb in the first half of the year (marked by the choice of the almost solitary opposition to the mega-majority of the Draghi government): the party of Giorgia Meloni to date it is still al 18,8 (against 19 of July 22, the last precedent of Ipsos). The M5s also down a gear, returning below the threshold of 17 percent registered at the European Championships two years ago. We can say that the “Count effect” can up to a certain point: it is at 16.5 (-0.6 compared to 3 months ago).

Below the 10 percent line there is Forza Italia even if it is recovering (a trend also recorded by other polling institutes to tell the truth). It is 8 per cent, compared to 7 in July. The Berlusconians stretch over the rest of the group of pursuers who according to Ipsos are all at 2 percent, some in decline and some in growth: Action (decreasing), Italia Viva and Europa Verde (growing) and Italian Left + Europe ( both stable). It is more difficult Article 1 (which in any case does not act autonomously either in elections or in the government), stopping at 1.2.

Closer coalitions (even without Action and Italia Viva)
All this produces a situation that is somewhat evident from the administrative results: the center-right is stronger, but not unbeatable. According to the calculations of the same Nando Pagnoncelli, illustrated in his commentary accompanying the data, the Fdi-Lega-Fi coalition would be at 46.8 per cent, slightly down by 0.7, while the center-left alliance and M5s (excluding Action and Italia Viva) would be at 44.4, up by one point. In short: the final result would have to be understood.

More undecided, despite the municipal ones
Pagnoncelli also underlines the “strong growth of the gray area, represented by undecided and abstentionists”. This is currently 40.9 percent of respondents to the survey, up 3.1 from this summer. A curious fact given that (in theory) the electoral campaign of the Municipalities should have clarified the ideas and instead had the result of confusing them, obviously.

Conte drops a lot, yet remains first
The satisfaction from Conte drops by 8 points in 3 months which is the result of many things: the difficulties of M5s, the quagmire that preceded his taking of the leadership of the Movement, the duel with Cricket, a line that has not always been marked and then the fact that it no longer has an institutional profile that gave it a more super partes role (especially in a difficult time like the pandemic) and that it has become the leader of one party, the 5 stars. Yet she is still in the lead among the party leaders: at 43, 6 points ahead of the president of the Brothers of Italy Giorgia Meloni (stable after 3 months). Another optical illusion – due to the commitment to fight the virus – is that of the Minister of Health Roberto Speranza: the party he represents is practically last, but he is still the third most welcome leader, albeit down to 34 (compared to 37 in July).

The electoral successes of the Democratic Party push the secretary Enrico Read, although not very much: it is at 32 and exceeds Matteo Salvini (down by one point). It also resurfaces Silvio Berlusconi, paired 30 percent with Salvini after a rise from 27. Rome’s electoral performance did well to Carlo Calenda which, compared to July, increases his personal satisfaction index by 3 points, from 25 to 28. Then the leader of Cambiamo follows. Giovanni Toti al 27, Emma Bonino di + Europa al 25, the secretary of the Italian Left Nicola Fratoianni al 19, Maurizio Lupi di Noi with Italy at 18 and the co-spokesperson of Europa Verde Angelo Bonelli al 17.

Closes the ranking, as now often happens, the former Prime Minister Matteo Renzi, at 14, although up by two points.

The approval of the government and Draghi is decreasing, but still high
The usual wear and tear of government activity does pay some price in terms of popularity to both the executive and the prime minister Mario Draghi. It must be said, however, that both still record approval ratings well above half of the interviewees: 60 per cent for the government, 63 per cent for Draghi. Both down, as we said: -5 for the executive, -7 for the head of the government.

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