(Teleborsa) – Also the Bank of Italy revised its forecasts upwards growth in Italy in 2021. The Istituto di via Nazionale in the Economic Bulletin published today, in fact, estimated that the increase in PIL it should be placed around the 6%, “a significantly higher value than estimated in the July Economic Bulletin”.
In the report, the Bank of Italy highlighted that the increase in GDP in the country, which in the second quarter was much higher than expected, would continue in the summer months. “On the basis of the available indicators, in third quarter the industrial production it would have grown by about one percentage point and GDP by over 2% – explain the economists of the Bank of Italy -. The extension of vaccination coverage and the increase in mobility made possible the resumption of consumption of services by households, which was associated with the recovery of investments already in progress. “According to the surveys conducted by the Central Bank, the expectations of families the economic situation in Italy has improved overall as well as the propensity to spend in the sectors most affected by the pandemic, including hotels, bars and restaurants, is recovering. “However, caution still remains with regard to spending prospects, especially among the less well-off households”, it says. The businesses on the other hand, they confirmed “very favorable” opinions about the conditions for investing.
The sector of the exports. The Bank of Italy reported that the growth in exports, which in the second quarter was robust and higher than that of world trade, continued in the third. “In the summer the shopping of travelers foreigners it was significantly higher than in the same period last year, but still lower than the values of 2019. Non-residents continued to buy Italian securities for portfolio investments “, added the report. In addition, the improvement in the economic situation has is translated in spring into a marked rise in theoccupation, especially at term, and of the hours worked. The Bank of Italy noted that in July and August the number of employees increased again but at a slower pace and warned that “the effects of the pandemic crisis are not completely overcome and signs of underuse of work: the use of wage integration instruments is still extensive, although much lower than the 2020 highs, and the activity rate is below the levels of two years ago “.
As for theinflation, the document signal that it reached 2.9% in September, “driven by the marked growth in the prices of energy goods”. In the projections, the increase should not extend to the medium term: the recent contractual agreements do not yet envisage an acceleration of salary. Firms report that they have adjusted their price increases forecasts upwards, which, however, still remain below 2%.