POSSIBLE WEATHER EVOLUTION IN 15 DAYS
Given and considered what has happened recently, it will be good not to take the modeling projections at face value. You will remember that at the beginning of the month we were thinking about climatic weather conditions that are clearly different from the current ones, even if then we must remember that some mathematical models were convinced that the cold could take over.
We are talking about the anomalous hot hypothesis, or the so-called October. Talking about it now, at a time when temperatures are well below the seasonal averages, is strange. The fact is that October, in the recent past, was able to bring us not bad summer appendages.
Cards in hand we can tell you that High Pressure should give way. The mighty meridian block, which is giving rise to the influx of cold air over the central eastern Mediterranean, is about to give up its moorings. At that point we will see a clear improvement, as well as a clear increase in temperatures. Then, in the course of the last decade, hot air of subtropical matrix could intervene.
THE SHORT-TERM WEATHER
Before delving into the October hypothesis, it will be good not to neglect the weekly evolution in any way because it will propose a new, intense deterioration in the Central South regions. Indeed, by observing the various forecast maps we can tell you that the southern ones should be the most affected by bad weather. .
But what could happen? On Wednesday another cold vortex should arrive, this time a little more southern due to the fact that the High Pressure will tend to move towards the east. Temperatures could still lose a few degrees but above all the Mediterranean – with its still warm waters – should generate a secondary cyclonic vortex.
This time it should initially position itself on the lower Tyrrhenian Sea, causing locally violent phenomena between Sicily, Calabria and Salento. At first there could be room for some scattered precipitation also on the Adriatic and for snowfalls on the Alpine borders.
The awakening of the Atlantic seems to lead to the passage of a small depression vortex during the weekend, after which the High Pressure could take over, facilitating a substantial improvement and a significant rise in temperatures.
High Pressure which, during the last ten days of October, could make use of a clearly subtropical root. At that point the temperatures would rise again, reaching above the seasonal averages and confirming the typical October.
Hypothesis supported by thermal projections, more or less all oriented towards a marked rise in temperatures.
If October were to happen, at that point in October nothing would have been missing: anomalous cold and heat, that is, everything that represents the climatic extremes of the last decades.
We remind you that weather forecasts with a validity of up to 5 days have greater reliability, while this decreases as we move away over time.