In Turin, the abstention of the Northern League base forces the center-right candidate to second ballot. In Rome, on the other hand, the over 54s choose Enrico Michetti while the younger ones have voted Roberto Gualtieri e Virginia Raggi. In Naples, however, the success of Gaetano Manfredi passes from the Pd-M5s alliance, capable of attracting even the votes that went to the European Carroccio. These are the main elements that emerge from the first analyzes of the electoral flows relating to the municipal elections conducted by the Cattaneo Institute of Bologna and by Swg. This electoral round was marked above all by the very high abstention: a fact that for the Bolognese researchers is historical also because it reverses a historical gap. If, in recent years, Northern Italy has voted more than the South in general elections, in some cases with a difference of over ten percentage points, in the last administrative elections the South has ‘beaten’ the North, by over 2.8 points. This is the conclusion reached by a first analysis of the Cattaneo Institute from Bologna on participation in municipal elections. This is not new: it is a phenomenon that has already been observed for about a decade, but on Sunday it reached an entity never so large before. “The explanation of this ‘anomaly’ of participation in municipal councils – say the Cattaneo researchers – must probably be sought in the weight of the personalization of consents, traditionally more present in the southern regions: the preference vote (absent in politics, but present in European electoral constituencies that make direct contacts between candidates and voters difficult) has a decisive weight in the municipal vote, especially in the South, and contributes to increasing electoral participation in these areas “. Participation in municipal councils, however, has another peculiarity: the larger the cities where it is voted, the greater the abstention. in fact, it is evident that the largest cities (over 350,000 inhabitants) are those where participation is lowest. In the last elections there are 12 points of difference compared to municipalities with less than 15 thousand inhabitants. A difference that, on the other hand, does not exist or is extremely limited, compared to the policies or the European ones. The explanation, even in this case, is to be found in the greater direct knowledge between elected officials and voters that exists in small and medium-sized centers compared to cities.
In Turin, the center-right pays for the abstention of the League – As far as large cities are concerned, Cattaneo’s analysis a Torino highlights how the center right has paid the abstention of the Northern League voters: and for this reason Paolo Damilano he went to the ballot only from second in the standings and is forced to chase Stefano Lo Russo. “The advantage of the center-left candidate – explained by Cattaneo – seems to be determined by the fact that he has managed to limit losses towards abstention and, from having recovered something from the electoral basin of the M5s. On the contrary, the original center-right basin suffered more substantial losses towards abstention and from the M5s he has not recovered anything ”. Lo Russo essentially kept the voters who had voted for the Democratic Party in the European elections: he lost something towards the center-right, but he recovered it from those who voted Lega or M5s.
In Turin the workers choose the center-right – More than a quarter of the voters who voted for Lega two years ago, however, did not go to vote. According to Swgthen, above all young people chose Lo Russo, even if almost two out of three did not vote, while Damilano is ahead among adults aged 35 to 54. The analysis of the institute headed by Alessandra Dragotto highlights a high abstention among the Turin workers, but among those who voted prevails clearly Damilano with 45.6. Those who have moved to the Piedmontese capital more recently, on the other hand, are less motivated to vote and more oriented towards the center-left.
Pd-M5s electorate welded in Naples. The votes of the League also go to Manfredi – According to the Cattaneo institute, the victory of Gaetano Manfredi in Naples it can be explained with a sort of welding between the electorates of the Democratic Party and the M5s, who appreciated and rewarded the alliance. The electorate that alle Europeans had voted Pd, in part it has rewarded Bassolino, but in the vast majority he followed Manfredi. And even from the 5 Star Movement there were no losses: indeed, three quarters of the (many) M5s votes of the Europeans have rewarded the center-left alliance and the candidate Manfredi, without suffering large losses in abstention. According to the estimates of the research institute, however, the League is undergoing one loss of some consistency: almost half of its European base voted the candidate of the center left. “A flow that may appear anomalous – they say to Cattaneo – but which can probably be explained by the fact that the Northern League electorate in the South, which grew quickly, is not yet well established and rooted: for this reason a part of it has not followed the indications of the party in favor of Maresca but has preferred other voting choices, probably in line with the political forces from which these same voters converged on the League in 2019 came from. At the Europeans, in fact, the League had gathered voters from the 5 stars and from abstention. We cannot say if and to what extent these are the same voters, but obviously they are among the most suspected of having left Salvini’s party ”.
In Rome young people choose Gualtieri and Raggi, over 54 Michetti – In Rome, however, the preference for the center-right candidate, Enrico Michetti, prevails more markedly among over-54, while the young people opted mainly for the center-left candidate Roberto Gualtieri and for the mayor Virginia Raggi, many graduates have chosen Carlo Calenda instead. According to the Swg analysis, which also dealt with the political self-collocation of the voters of Carlo Calenda, his electorate “is politically transversal, but with a strong concentration in the center-left”. Taking only the two into consideration candidates arrived at the ballot, center-right and center-left, when asked why he chose to vote for Michetti or for Gualtieri, in both cases most of the respondents replied “because it is supported by the party I vote”.
In Milan Sala regains the vote of women compared to 2016 – The reconfirmation in the first round of Giuseppe Sala in Milan it is also explained by the conquest, during the first term, of the vote of women. It is always the Swg data to reveal it, which also explains how the vote of young people converges on Sala to a much greater extent than 5 years ago. Two thirds of graduates chose Sala, he explains, while Bernardo obtained the best result among “the least educated”. 44% of those who voted for Sala, then, explain that they did so because is “the most competent“, While 42% of those who chose Bernardo say they did so only because they were“ supported by the party that usually votes ”.
Bologna, Lepore chosen “for its competence” by both young people (18-34 years) and over 64s – According to the Swg survey, the choice of voters was motivated: on the left for “competence” and on the right “because it could represent change”. Here the candidate of the center left Matteo Lepore won with 61 percent of the votes and, according to polls by the research institute, 34% of its supporters chose the competence, 27% chose it because exponent “of the party I vote” and 24% because “it has credible answers”. As for the opposite side, Battistini’s voters opted for him “because he is able to change things” (22%); “Because he is a strong figure” (20%); “To beat the old policy” (20%). It is also interesting to note how the voters were divided by age: the center-left candidate was chosen from the 18-34 years (66.7% of the votes of the interviewees) and the over 64 group (67%); while the 45-54 year olds sided with Battistini (43% of the preferences). It should be noted that 12 percent of the 35-44 year-olds who did not feel represented by either Lepore or Battistini and chose other candidates.
Trieste: 69% of students and 71% of the unemployed did not vote – One of the unexpected ballots for the center-right is in Trieste, where Roberto Dipiazza he expected to win in the first round while he will have to challenge the dem to the ballot Francesco Russo. According to SWG, the first was chosen for the support of the parties, the second for the “seriousness and quality of the program”. According to the surveys among the center-right voters, 27% voted for Dipiazza “because it is supported by the party I vote”, 25% because “it is close to the people” and 21% “because it is competent”. On the other hand, Russo was supported by the voters because “he has credible proposals” (25%); “Is the most serious” (25%); “Is able to change things” (24%). Swg then did the analysis of the vote based on the professions. They chose Dipiazza: the workers (62.8%); housewives housewives (59%); students (55.1) and pensioners (50.2). Mostly pensioners (37.6), then self-employed workers (36.5%) and employees (33.2) preferred Russo. 31.5% of the unemployed did not feel represented by any of the main mayoral candidates. While 69 per cent of students and 71 per cent of the unemployed did not vote. As for age, Dipiazza was chosen by 53% of the over 64s; Russian mainly from the 55-64 age group (36.2%).