The Democratic Party wins, Lega and Forza Italia collapse, and the 5-star Movement flounders. To look at the data of the first round of 2021 municipal with the eyes of Mario Draghi the picture might seem dramatic. A substantial portion of the majority collected tremendous results at the polls, with the risk of generating incredible imbalances in the executive. With their respective bases that tremble because government cohabitation has held back their populist input. “Sovereignty no longer works” could be the synthesis of the last few months. In short, the ingredients are those of a potential explosion. Yet the vote does not seem to have affected the solidity of the premier at all, quite the contrary. The former ECB goes straight ahead and, within three hours, he will present himself to the control room and to the Council of Ministers with the intention of moving forward on the fiscal delegation. The message is clear: those who want to take off, do so on the reforms, because the line of Palazzo Chigi does not change.
Raggi and the Comunali in Rome, from flambus to waste, the era of Virginia sets: 2 out of 3 voters lost
The eyes are clearly on Lega and M5s which, however, will need time before relaunching and structuring an organic reaction to the poor results obtained. Starting to fight within the government now, rather than renewing its vigor, risks further wearing down the spirits. Using any opposition to Draghi to close ranks in the parties, this time will not allow him to untie the internal knots for the simple fact that the positions are very distant (Di Maio-Conte-Grillo in the five stars could make the Movement a war between gangs but they will wait to get closer to the elections to do so, and the same goes for the Salvini-Giorgetti / governors duel in the carroccio). And then the viewfinder ends up aiming at the Quirinale. The race for the Colle thus becomes the main reason for instability, but also the prop that keeps the executive on its feet.
Municipal, in Rome challenges Michetti-Gualtieri. Milan and Naples on the left, Lega and 5 Stelle collapse
What is most worrying is the front of the center-right. Already delicate due to Meloni’s position in opposition, with Salvini’s defeat the Lega’s voting intentions, up to now taken for granted, also end up on the table again. The carroccio will study new moves and it is not certain that they do not aim to split the majority to undermine FdI in the coalition. For its part, Meloni continues in its systematic attempt to burn the name of Draghi al Colle or, in the alternative version, to obtain elections immediately and monetize as much as possible the treasury of votes accumulated in these months of opposition (and exploit the League’s weakness).
Elections Rome, Calenda already relaunches: my centrist treasure to divide the Pd and M5S
Nothing particularly new in practice, only that the inevitability of the data coming out of the polls no longer allows leaders to ignore it. In other words, little will change for the government in the coming weeks, except that the projects for the immediate future of the “hanging” parties will become more and more devoted to seeking consensus rather than defining reforms.