Rome elections polls: a few days after the stop to the publication of the voting surveys, in Italy by law they cannot be issued in the fifteen days preceding the opening of the polling stations, the surveys by the various institutes follow one another.
For some time, in fact, all the attention of politics has been directed towards this delicate round of administrative elections given that, in addition to Rome, the polls will also open in cities such as Milan, Naples, Turin and Bologna.
Despite the great crowd of aspiring mayors in the capital, twenty-two a record, the polls immediately narrowed the circle of eligible candidates to four candidates: Virginia Raggi, Roberto Gualtieri, Enrico Michetti e Carlo Calenda.
Ma who will win these administrative elections in Rome? After a period of great uncertainty, for the polls the situation now appears to have taken shape, with Roberto Gualtieri who can be considered as the great favorite for the Capitol.
Elections Rome, what the polls say
In recent months there have been many i surveys in view of the administrative elections in Rome that have tried to hypothesize who could be the new mayor of the capital.
The latest survey was developed by YouTrend for The Republic. A ballot between Michetti and Gualtieri would be so inevitable: in the head-to-head then it would be the former minister who came out the winner.
Source La Repubblica
As for the lists, that of the Democratic Party would be the most voted, while in the center-right the Brothers of Italy would considerably detach the League with a greatly reduced Forza Italia.
Source La Repubblica
There would also be a strong discrepancy between the total obtained from the center-right lists and what was attested to the candidate, with Enrico Michetti leaving 6% on the street due to the split vote.
A few days earlier there was the survey carried out by Swg on behalf of Tg La7. The scenario would be that of a head to head between Gualtieri and Calenda to access the ballot against Gualtieri.
Also for Swg, Calenda in the hypothetical ballots would come out the winner against all the other aspiring mayors; Gualtieri would then have the better of Michetti and Raggi with the center-right candidate who would be the favorite only if opposed to the current mayor.
Another survey carried out in Rome was the one released by GPF. Michetti would thus be the most voted candidate in the first round, with Gualtieri firmly in second position.
As for the possible ballots, Michetti would be the winner against all possible challengers except with Gualtieri, with the former minister who would come out the winner in any eventual head-to-head.
On 2 September, however, a survey carried out by Bidimedia was released. For the institute, the situation would be quite clear with Michetti always in the lead and destined for a ballot with Gualtieri.
Previously, in view of the administrative elections, there was the survey carried out by Opinio on behalf of RAI. According to the survey, the situation seems to be quite delineated.
Despite a decline, Enrico Michetti would always be ahead of everyone, with Roberto Gualtieri who at the same time would seem to maintain a decent margin over Virginia Raggi and Carlo Calenda. A center-right-center-left ballot therefore appears to be the most likely scenario.
Another poll on the vote for the Capitol was carried out by Dempolis on behalf of Roma Today, who would always see Enrico Michetti in his head.
Behind the center-right candidate, there would instead be a fight to access the ballot: Roberto Gualtieri would have the advantage, but Virginia Raggi and Carlo Calenda are still close to the former minister.
Who win? Gualtieri favorite in Rome
When reading a poll related to local elections, you should always keep in mind the electoral system which regulates the vote: if no candidate in the first round should be able to go beyond 50%, then there is a ballot between the two most voted.
All the surveys so far circulated indicate that a ballot to determine who will be the next mayor of Rome is inevitable. If in the height of summer the situation seemed to be more balanced, now the balance of power appears more defined.
Enrico Michetti since his investiture he has been the only one to have the certainty of being able to access the final butt, thanks to the compact support from all the forces of the center-right. Despite a not particularly brilliant election campaign, the Tribune it would be maintaining its advantage.
Behind him initially Roberto Gualtieri, Virginia Raggi e Carlo Calenda, were all given close, but the latest surveys have shown that now the candidate of the Democratic Party is ahead of the mayor and the leader of Action.
The most probable scenario of these elections in Rome consequently appears to be that of a runoff between Michetti and Gualtieri. Also in this case the polls agree in indicating the former minister as the winner.
Roberto Gualtieri can thus be defined as the big favorite in these elections in Rome: if he were to get to the ballot, the doors of the Capitol could be thrown open for him, especially if an agreement with Virginia Raggi or Carlo Calenda were to arrive after the first round.