The electoral hub of the autumn elections will play a role in the Colle game. And, perhaps, also on a possible early vote. Meanwhile, the political forces are at work between strategies and the electoral campaign
For those who have not noticed, there are early elections. And again, for the more distracted, we remember the dates: 3 and 4 October. When national politics has been all and only government for a few months – Brothers of Italy aside -, when it becomes news that the leaguers vote in Parliament together with Meloni and company, the Administrations risk becoming the only place where homo politicus can practice to understand something. But also the moment in which the balances of 2018 could become just a memory and the composition of Parliament a faded photo, which still counts in the present but tells little or nothing about the future.
The new challenge of the M5S
Municipal elections in October 2021: everything you need to know
The battles for the municipalities tell of a country that rediscovers bipolarism, out of love (in the first round) or by force (in any ballots). The third pole – the first in 2018 – can hardly be seen: the Cinquestelle appear for the judgment of the voters only in theaters selected (by them), sometimes alongside the Democratic Party and therefore already within a bipolar logic.
The Democratic Party seeks confirmation
The left wants to demonstrate once again that it has the most rooted and appreciated political class in the area. And it is a fact that Renzi and his people find themselves – again and almost invariably – on that side. Changes in political geography are at least postponed, assuming that the numbers of Italia Viva can change any geography.
The bet of the right
White semester, the last phase of Mattarella’s presidency
The right often presents little-known candidates, the result of a very complicated negotiation and the result of which is rather poor. But for this very reason, any affirmation would reinforce the idea that the center-right is winning and will be – even more so – in politics. The desire to anticipate them would be almost irresistible but, nevertheless, difficult to satisfy. The defection of the League alone would not bring down the government, Forza Italia has nothing to gain from the fall of Draghi.
The future of Draghi
Perhaps – paradoxically – Draghi would have to gain from his own fall. He would find himself the strongest candidate for the Quirinale, indeed the only one. But there is a limit to everything. If I could, I would bet that Draghi and Mattarella have already drawn it together. And in the meantime I would look at what happens in Milan, Rome, Naples and Bologna, above all.