AGI – After more than a month of “forced” silence, due to the summer break, our Supermedia of polls is back, based on the first surveys carried out by the main polling institutes returning from August holidays (period during which the retrieval of a representative sample of Italians is particularly complicated).
In the absence of sensational developments in Italian politics, it was reasonable to expect few changes compared to the last Supermedia published on 5 August. Yet, there are some significant data. Starting with that of the Brothers of Italy, which grows further (+0.4) and consolidates its advantage over the League, after the recent overtaking. Matteo Salvini’s party, on the other hand, falls below 20% for the first time in almost three and a half years. Like the League, the Democratic Party also loses almost half a point (-0.4) and falls below 19%.
Less contained (and probably due to statistical fluctuations) are the variations relating to the Movimento 5 Stelle (+0.2) and Forza Italia (-0.2), as well as to the other minor parties, from Action (3.6%) downwards. As often happens, variations at the level of individual parties can count up to a certain point, while those concerning aggregations are more significant.
So, for example, we find that the sum of the parties that support the Draghi government today reaches its historical “minimum”, even if it is still a very high figure (72.5%) for a parliamentary majority, much higher than that of the previous majorities of this legislature.
The growth of FDI (much more effective than the Italian Left in catalyzing the consensus of those who oppose the executive) is in fact explained by the “crowding” of the many heterogeneous political forces that support the Government, which – as committed as they are to discuss around the executive measures they support – they find themselves unable to increase their consensus.
The discussions of the last period concern in particular the application of the Green Pass, which from 1 September became mandatory for using long-distance means of transport, and which from today will also be mandatory for many categories of workers.
Despite the strong controversy that accompanied the executive’s decision, and which resulted in a split at the time of the vote in Parliament, almost 75% of Italians are, according to SWG, in favor of this measure. Disaggregating the data by electorates, we discover how the voters of the Democratic Party and Forza Italia are those most convinced of the validity of the mandatory Green Pass (respectively 95% and 91%), far from the data recorded by the Lega electorates (71% ), Fratelli d’Italia (73.5%) and M5S (82.7%).
Euromedia also shows similar numbers, but showing an even more cautious attitude on the part of the voters of 5 Stars (73%) and Fratelli d’Italia (67%). The latter, according to EMG, are even “only” in favor of 56%. Also according to Euromedia, it should be noted the presence of a further cleavage with respect to that linked to political orientation, and which concerns the distinction between vaccinated and unvaccinated: among the former, the Green Pass is shared by over 90% of respondents, while among those who do not want to get vaccinated, those against come to 89.3%.
Staying on the subject, data very similar to those on the Green Pass emerge from the investigations relating to a hypothetical vaccination obligation. According to the surveys of SWG and EMG, this measure would be strongly supported by the voters of PD and Forza Italia (with over 80-90%), a little less from those of the Lega (63%) and would be decidedly more divisive for the voters of FDI (52%), among which the share of against is more than 30%. Overall, for both institutes, as well as for Ipsos, the measure would register a slightly lower approval rating than the Green Pass, being shared by more than 6 out of 10 Italians (63% for SWG, 64% for EMG and 65% for Ipsos).
Despite the resoluteness of Prime Minister Draghi (who has so far shown little interest in the controversy between the parties that support his government), it is to be expected that the climate will remain “effervescent” for quite a few weeks. The reason, as often happens in our country, is that we are now close to an important electoral deadline: that of 3 and 4 October, in which over 1,200 municipalities will vote (including many of the main cities, starting with Rome) and a region (Calabria).
It has happened many times that local elections had disruptive effects on political balance, and this time the same thing could happen. The reason is simple: despite the fact that on the national level – as we have seen – the center-right is by far the strongest coalition on the map, according to the polls it could not elect any mayor in the 5 main Italian cities.
According to the surveys carried out so far, in fact, only in Rome the center-right candidate (Michetti) has the advantage in the first round, but this means little. In the capital, in fact, the situation is extremely uncertain, and there are 4 candidates who aspire to get to the ballot: among these, Michetti is the first, but with just over 30% of the votes he risks being defeated if in the second round he were to meet the former ministers (both PD MEPs) Roberto Gualtieri (center-left candidate) or Carlo Calenda (who presents himself as a civic); if, on the other hand, the outgoing mayor Virginia Raggi (M5S) arrives at the ballot, the game would still be very uncertain.
In the other cities, the center-right is found almost everywhere to chase: in Milan, where the outgoing Beppe Sala is the favorite; in Naples, where the former prosecutor Catello Maresca is lagging behind Gaetano Manfredi; and in Bologna, where the PD candidate Matteo Lepore should even win in the first round. The only situation a little more favorable to the center-right is in Turin, where Paolo Damilano has the advantage over Lo Russo (center-left), with a good chance of winning the ballot (especially if the M5S does not openly line up for Lo Russo).
For the Regionals in Calabria, where the vote is in a single round, there should be few surprises: the favorite is Roberto Occhiuto (center-right), who according to the Opinio consortium polls could exceed 40%. As there is no ballot, there is little hope for a center left that is even divided into 3 candidates: Amalia Bruni (supported by PD and M5S) who according to the survey would not reach 30%, the former mayor of Naples Luigi De Magistris (between 15 and 20%) and former PD governor Mario Oliverio (about 10%), back on track after acquittals from corruption charges that had caused his resignation in 2019.
NOTE: Supermedia YouTrend / Agi is a weighted average of national voting intentions polls. Today’s weighting, which includes surveys carried out from 26 August to 8 September, was carried out on 9 September on the basis of the sample size, the date of implementation and the method of data collection. The surveys considered were carried out by the Demos institutes (publication date: 4 September), Euromedia (publication date: 5 September), SWG (publication dates: 30 August and 6 September) and Tecnè (publication date: 3 September). .
The detailed methodological note of each survey considered is available on the official website www.sondaggipoliticoelettorali.it.