At dawn on August 3, the Colle will be overshadowed by a presidential eclipse that will last six months. Wrapped in the cone of shadow, Sergio Mattarella will no longer be able to dissolve the Chambers for any reason, not even if the world falls: the Constitution forbids him to do so in article 88, paragraph two. Behind the rule there is a paranoia of our fathers who feared who knows what blackmail against Parliament; but even then it seemed like an exaggerated scruple, and in the last 70 years there has been a thousand times talked about correcting the absurdity. Everyone agreed, nothing has ever been done about it.
So now Mattarella finds himself with his hands tied, without the deterrent weapon that would consist in sending everyone home if needed. Someone raises the alarm: Conte and the grillini could take advantage of it to put the government in a tight spot without running the risk of going to vote. As proof is cited the rarest case, of those that occur once every 800 years such as the conjunctions between Saturn and Jupiter: the majority crashes into some obstacle; in despair, the prime minister throws in the towel; consultations do not get a spider out of the hole. A highly unlikely sum of circumstances. In this entirely theoretical eventuality, due to the white semester Mattarella could not choose the path of voting that would be the most natural. Result: the government (this or another) would be sent back to the Chambers, there disheartened and required to manage only current affairs, practically turning their thumbs because everything would be blocked until the end of the seven-year period, including Parliament.
If this astral conjunction occurs, goodbye reforms demanded by Europe, goodbye billions of the Recovery Fund, goodbye hopes of avoiding a default (let’s imagine at what height the spread would splash). After that, Mattarella dismissed in January, the next President of the Republic would take over. The Chambers would finally be dissolved and we would go back to voting; not earlier than 60 days, however; the polls could open in early April and the new Parliament would meet in early May. The government would speak again in mid-June 2022, not before. As if to say a whole year of political recreation.
Would the white semester really be worse than a meteorite? On paper, yes, but in practice that would not be the case. In the event of a crisis, the almost obvious outcome would be another government, also the one led by the usual Mario Draghi. The numbers are all on his side; the majority that supports it is so vast that, to make them fail, it would take a mass escape. In addition to the grillini, the Democratic Party should also run away, but he does not think about it at all, because it would mean giving Dragons to the right. In turn, Salvini, in order to overturn the table, would have to drag all the Forza Italia parliamentarians with him, including those who would never be re-elected: a difficult task that Matteo has long since given up on it. He would love to go back to voting, but he considers it an impossible dream. Stefano Ceccanti, “dem” jurist summarizes: “The white semester is a paper tiger”.
Even in the case that the most pessimistic ones are passionate about, of a lightning-fast and dead-end crisis, Mattarella would still have one way to assert themselves: to resign on the spot, without waiting for the end of the seven-year term. Within 15 days the Chambers would meet to elect the successor, who would see if he (or she, depending on who it is) with those who play on the skin of the country. The shadow would suddenly vanish and the elections would return around the corner. Last doubt before dismissing the issue: would Mattarella be willing to leave the Colle a few months in advance? After all, he would not even need to do it: it would be enough for him to simply threaten to resign, putting an end in one fell swoop to the twelfth seven-year term and the eighteenth term. Nobody would like to take the risk because, as the great Sergio Leone would have said, “when a man with a gun meets a man with an explosive vest, the man with the gun is a dead man”.