Italy’s GDP increased by 2,7% in the second quarter of 2021 compared to the previous quarter of 17,3% in trend terms. After a slight recovery at the beginning of the year, our local economy has thus recorded sustained growth. The services sector is particularly affected by the recovery, and the industry is also growing. Agriculture, on the other hand, remains stable.
The exceptional trend increase derives from the comparison with the second quarter of 2020, in which a point minimum caused by the economic and health crisis due to the Covid-19 pandemic. The Istat estimate is provisional and based on indicators and partial data that could be revised in the coming quarters.
After collapsing by nearly 9 percentage points last year, Italy is expected to grow in 2021 4,8%, based on Istat forecasts, or del 4,9%, based on those of the International Monetary Fund. These are higher estimates than the previous ones, which are close to the objective of number one of the Mef Daniele Franco, which repeatedly spoke of a 5% growth.
Europe in recovery, Italy beats Germany on the increase in GDP
The extraordinary leap in GDP is in line with the rest of the euro area, where it rose on average by 2%, and of all the member countries of theEuropean Union, where there is an average increase in1,9%.
The European recovery could in all respects be led by Italy e Spain, as underlined by the European Commissioner Paolo Gentiloni. The Iberian state should even grow by 6,2%. Excellent figures also for the France, which this year should see GDP increase by 5,8%.
The other European countries, while averting the recession caused by Covid, are growing less. The GDP of Germany in the second quarter of 2021 it increased by 1.5%. Throughout 2021, the country’s growth, which has always been a symbol of productivity, should be around 3,6%.
Because GDP increases in the West: it is also thanks to the vaccine
The European recovery reflects the IMF’s World Economic Outlook, with one growth overall of the 6% in 2021 and del 4,9% 2022. However, these positive data will affect only the most advanced countries, with the Covid vaccine which represents the “borderline” between the states that will return to normal and those that will experience an economic crisis.
In the second part of 2021, in fact, the countries that will have reached a quota of vaccinated people necessary for the resumption of all production and commercial activities, with many infections but few hospitalizations e deaths due to Covid, they will continue to distance themselves from those in which people will continue to die from the pandemic.
However, Weo points out that the increase in cases and the emergence of new variants in less developed states could put at risk also the West and its recovery, and for this it will be necessary to avert new waves and send anti Covid vaccines to the rest of the world.