AGI – The head-to-head between Lega and Fratelli d’Italia continues for the (virtual) palm of the country’s first party. If last week our Supermedia had photographed – for the first time in three years – the sensational overtaking of FDI, today the two competitors are perfectly matched, both with a round 20%. Of some interest is the (somewhat unusual) fact that both show a decline compared to two weeks ago, as if the competition that so far has followed a sort of dynamic of “communicating vessels” (when one of the two parties went down, the other saliva) has suddenly turned into a negative-sum game.
The most important element, however, is clearly another one: that is the strong recovery of the 5 Star Movement, which gains more than one point going up from 15 to 16.1 percent. The rule is confirmed according to which polls are able to photograph voting orientations following events of a certain impact, but only after several days, when they have “settled” in public opinion (the latter is also one of the reasons why our Supermedia shows the variations compared to the data of two weeks before).
The “new course” of the 5 Star Movement, with the peace between Beppe Grillo and Giuseppe Conte and the agreement on the new statute – which will shortly be submitted to the vote of the members via the web – was the subject of an investigation by the Euromedia institute . According to this survey, almost 4 out of 10 Italians believe that a Conte leadership is now able to relaunch the M5S, a percentage that rises to 90% among the current voters of the Movement founded by Beppe Grillo. The newfound unity and such a broad internal consensus on the figure of the new leader certainly contribute to explaining the growth detected by Supermedia.
Apparently, the increase in consensus towards the M5S comes at the expense of the first 3 parties, which are enclosed in less than a percentage point, with the PD in third position (also slightly down as Lega and FDI). Another noteworthy element is the figure of the two subjects on the left of the Democratic Party, both above 2%. Taken together, the two (former) components of the Liberi e Uguali cartel – namely Article 1-MDP and Sinistra Italiana – are worth 4.4%, the highest value since the beginning of the legislature (which opened with the elections of 4 March 2018 in which LeU achieved a disappointing 3.4%).
Meanwhile, political news continues to dominate the debate on vaccines, and in particular around the Green pass decided by the government. As we have seen, the No Vax – however you want to define them – are a minority of the population, even a rather small one; which, however, did not prevent some politicians (of the opposition, but also of the majority) from questioning even the opportunity to induce citizens to vaccinate, provoking a decisive reaction from Prime Minister Draghi and even an explicit recall of the President of the Republic, Sergio Mattarella.
When we talk about No Vax, however, we must keep in mind not only that it is a minority: but also that, among those who are little or not at all inclined to get vaccinated, the predominant feeling is the fear of possible unpleasant side effects, if not even serious. On this, two distinct recent findings agree: the fear of unknown side effects is by far the first reason given by those who do not want to get vaccinated (or are still undecided), cited by 58% of the sample interviewed by the SWG institute and by 45% than the one interviewed by Demopolis.
Another “burning” issue in the last period was the justice reform presented by Minister Marta Cartabia, approved unanimously by the Council of Ministers and then subject to criticism and retractions (especially by the 5 Star Movement) following the findings moved publicly by the world of the judiciary. Pending the publication of surveys relating to the knowledge of the individual measures, in recent weeks there has been a generally favorable attitude towards the reform as a whole.
On July 13, the majority of Italians interviewed by Euromedia (46%) agreed with the statement that this reform constitutes “an important first step”, with even 6% of enthusiasts, convinced that it would “fix everything” ; on the other hand, 21% showed a negative attitude, not because they considered the reform harmful (as denounced by some magistrates and some newspapers), but because “not important”, “smoke in the eyes”.
A survey conducted by the Piepoli institute the following week showed that almost 2 out of 3 Italians were very (23%) or quite (41%) in favor of the Cartabia reform, while only 18% were against it. But the data on the parties tell us a lot about how this issue is also at strong risk of polarization, in the wake of the political debate that has developed around it: according to Piepoli, in fact, the number of supporters of the reform is much higher among the voters of center-right (81%) and center-left (PD and allies, 75%) than in the 5 Star Movement, where the approval rate is just over half (57%).
The major criticisms of the Cartabia reform, coming from magistrates and intellectuals historically close to the pentastellated world, could certainly have negative effects on the orientation of Italians towards the reform, but also towards the minister herself. A few months ago, just to give an idea, Marta Cartabia was in second place, with 13%, among the “quirinabile” figures that the Italians would have wanted as President of the Republic after Mattarella (in first place, with 27%, Mario Draghi was there).
Of course, these were answers that reflected suggestions that have been circulating in the media for some time. But it is indicative of how delicate the issue is, not only for the importance that justice reform has in Italy (even more so if we consider that it is a “strategic” reform to obtain European funds), but also for the position of Minister Cartabia, who in terms of consensus – and the consequent institutional perspectives – has a lot to lose.
NOTE: Supermedia YouTrend / Agi is a weighted average of national voting intentions polls. Today’s weighting, which includes surveys carried out from 15 to 28 July, was carried out on 29 July on the basis of the sample size, the date of implementation and the method of data collection.
The surveys considered were carried out by Euromedia institutes (publication date: July 24), Ipsos (publication date: July 25), Ixè (publication date: July 23), Piepoli (publication date: July 22), SWG ( publication dates: July 19 and 26) and Tecnè (publication dates: July 17 and 24).
The detailed methodological note of each survey considered is available on the official website www.sondaggipoliticoelettorali.it.