Not just M5s chaos. But also the weakness of the secretariat of the Democratic Party. Two elements to which must be added the renewed understanding between Matteo Salvini and Matteo Renzi on the Zan bill, always with all due respect to Enrico Letta, whose leadership at the Nazarene appears more fragile with each passing day. A mix that risks resetting the race to the Quirinale, a match that will only formally open in February and which has actually already started some time ago.
It is true that the Movement remains the first parliamentary group in both the House and the Senate, but it is equally clear that the confusion of recent weeks (which will continue in the coming months) suggests that the M5s-Pd axis may eventually struggle to take off. And at that point, the two most popular candidates among the big names in the Nazarene would inevitably suffer: that of Dario Franceschini and that of Paolo Gentiloni. If this were the case, perhaps there would be some opening for an agreement on the center-right front. Thanks to the fact that 58 regional delegates participate in the election of the President of the Republic, almost all of whom are in Lega-FI-FdI share. And also by virtue of a possible axis with Italy alive, a circumstance that Renzi himself does not rule out. “If this time the center-right remains united, it can really have its say on the Quirinale”, the former prime minister has been repeating for weeks. All net of the doubts of Giorgia Meloni, who to date does not seem willing to bring out the Salvini-Renzi tandem as the winner of the Colle game (not even Pier Ferdinando Casini was elected, explained the leader of Fratelli d’Italia in private days ago ).
At the moment, however, the two priority options remain those of Sergio Mattarella and Mario Draghi. On the first weighs the opposition – manifested in private and in public – of the person concerned. But if it came to February in this chaotic situation, his would be the simplest solution. It would be a so-called “term” mandate – as happened with Giorgio Napolitano’s encore in 2013 – which would guarantee the certain end of the legislature in 2023. And, therefore, another year of salary for a Parliament destined for the next round to be downsized in terms of numbers (by the constitutional reform) and rewritten in the balance of the current groups. Of the 161 deputies and 75 grillini senators, to give an example, more than two thirds of the polls will remain at home. Similar speech for the Democratic Party, where the current groups are Renzian traction and it is clear that the new secretariat will heavily hand over the lists. In short, an encore from Mattarella could be a great element of sharing and solidarity between the political forces in the field. Without neglecting the detail that Draghi also seems to favor a scenario of continuity. About ten days ago, in fact, the premier privately stressed that Mattarella is the only guarantor of the work he is doing at Palazzo Chigi and of the commitment made for the country. Words that his interlocutor interpreted as a wish, because it is evident that if the tenant of the Colle changes, the balance with respect to the government also changes. It is no coincidence that institutional practice provides that, when a new head of state is elected, the premier will present himself at the Quirinale with a resignation, so to speak, out of courtesy (they were not for the Scelba government when in 1955 elected Giovanni Gronchi).
Second option, however, is that of Draghi himself. The practicability of which is made difficult by the role of guarantor of Italy that has been carved out in Europe in recent months and by the fact that leaving the armchair in Palazzo Chigi empty would open a raffle on the early vote that you know how it starts but not necessarily how it goes. to end.
If for some reason the two main options were to fail, at that point in the match for the Colle everything would be possible. Because it is true that no President of the Republic has ever been elected without the support of the party most represented in Parliament – in 1992, even the DC, now in the process of liquefaction, succeeded with Oscar Luigi Scalfaro – but it is equally true that the M5s risks in the months to come to become a real swamp where almost everyone will move without any conditioning and in an atmosphere of “free all”.