18 year olds from Campania in the Majorca outbreak

18 year olds from Campania in the Majorca outbreak
18 year olds from Campania in the Majorca outbreak

Between Mallorca and Campania, the photograph was taken that shows how the Delta variant will be able to run among the boys who will tour Europe for the holidays. About ten days ago, on the largest island of the Balearics, a cluster exploded that has few precedents in this story of the pandemic: 1,800 young people from all over Spain, for the school-year holidays, were infected due to parties and concerts that often violated anti Covid rules (to put it mildly). Governor Vincenzo De Luca explained that two boys from Campania were also found positive for the Delta variant: they had returned from Mallorca and attended the same clubs in S’Arenal, on the beach on the edge of Palma.

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Just today the Higher Institute of Health will publish data on the diffusion of the Delta variant in our country. The summary is that by now out of four new positives one is with the mutation that has multiplied first in India, then in the United Kingdom and has a transmission effectiveness of 60 percent higher than the English variant, which already ran much faster than the virus in the Wuhan version. According to the Undersecretary of Health, Pierpaolo Sileri “We are over 25 per cent, we are approaching 30”. By August also in Italy it will be dominant. It is not a serious problem as long as the number of new cases remains low as in these days, even yesterday we remained under 900 infected in the last 24 hours (even if there is a slowdown in the decrease, at the same time, however, the hospitals are emptying ). But the Delta variant objectively has an Rt (transmission index) now significantly higher than the average of the virus in Italy: this means that from September we must expect an increase in new cases, also due to Italians (not just young people) who will return from vacation. Rightly there is a lot of attention to stem the arrival of the English in view of the quarter-finals of the European Championships that will be played tomorrow night at the Olimpico, because the Delta in the United Kingdom is now well above 90 percent.

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Crossings

However, it cannot be forgotten that British tourists are allowed to travel to the Balearic Islands (which ended up on the green list of Johnson’s government). Moral: in a few weeks in Ibiza, Mallorca, Menorca and Formentera Italians and British will find themselves attending the same beaches, the same bars, the same parties, the same restaurants. Furthermore, the Delta variant is already running not only in the UK, but is already close to 60 per cent in Portugal, 25 per cent in Croatia, 20 per cent in Spain. Will it be a dramatic autumn? It depends on how fast we will be in vaccinations, because the news coming from the United Kingdom and Israel shows that the Delta variant is not invincible, a significant increase in new cases does not correspond to a similar increase in hospitalizations and deaths; on the other hand, Russia, which is far behind in vaccinations, now has more than 600 deaths a day. How many are still unprotected over 60, that is citizens of the age groups in which the death rate, in the event of contagion, is higher? Generally it is known that there are still 2.6 million people to be persuaded to get vaccinated.

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But the number of those still stopped at the first dose is also worrying, given that only the conclusion of the vaccination process guarantees solid efficacy against the Delta variant. Yesterday Ema reiterated it: whoever is vaccinated with the first and second dose is protected. In Italy, if we add those who have not been vaccinated to those who received only one injection, we find that between 60 and 69 years 51 per cent are still at Delta variant risk, between 70 and 79 42, between 80 and 89 the 12, over 90 on 11. “Even if – observes Sileri – in Italy there is a significant slice of the population that has had contact with the virus, perhaps asymptomatic, and that has a partial natural defense against contagion”. The rapid growth of the Delta variant, the signals coming from Spain with the gigantic holiday outbreak in Mallorca and the prudence in the face of a delicate event such as the European game have convinced the government to wait to give the green light to the reopening of the discos . If this happens, it will still be linked to the green pass, but with a corrective, because the coverage guaranteed by a single dose will not be enough.

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