We are far from the end, still significant risks

We are far from the end, still significant risks
We are far from the end, still significant risks

The Prime Minister, Mario Draghi, sees signs of recovery, also from an economic point of view, but at the same time neon denies its concerns about the Coronavirus emergency. “The overall favorable outlook hides some significant risks – says from Barcelona – although the pandemic situation seems increasingly under control, we are still far from the end“. Draghi warns: “Vaccination efforts so far have focused on the rich world. Only 0.3% of doses in low-income countries, while the richest gave 85%, a difference that is not only ethically unjust, but also very dangerous. As long as the virus continues to circulate freely, there will always be a risk of new variants. One or more could be resistant to our vaccines, compromising the campaigns”.

Draghi: possible increase in GDP estimates

The Prime Minister starts from data on the health emergency, recalling how more than 200 thousand deaths have been recorded between Italy and Spain since the beginning of the pandemic. But he also remembers the dramatic impact on the economy: “The gross domestic product of the European Union fell by 6.1%, the largest contraction ever recorded. The strongest reduction was recorded in Italy and Spain, where GDP fell by 8.9% and 10.8% respectively“. Now, “thanks to vaccination efforts, there is a return to growth“. Draghi cites EU estimates, according to which the Pil will grow by 4.2%: “In Italy and Spain an increase of 4.2% and 5.9% respectively is expected. These forecasts could be revised upwards, with the return of confidence between businesses and households”.

The economic and employment recovery

The recovery of the economy must also lead to a recovery of employment, according to Draghi: “Employment needs to increase faster to create the jobs we need. The global economy is undergoing a phase of profound changes, including the ecological and digital transition, which will require a reallocation of the workforce. It is essential to maintain favorable conditions of demand in order to guarantee support for workers, who are facing an increasing risk of displacement“. Furthermore, according to the Prime Minister, “the continuing uncertainty means that the reasons for maintaining an expansionary monetary and fiscal policy remain convincing. Our minimum goal must be to bring economic activity back at least in line with the pre-pandemic trajectory. Only then can we say that we have overcome the effects“Of the pandemic, but to do so you need”further efforts”.

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significant risks

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