June 08, 2021 7:53 am
When will herd immunity against Coronavirus be achieved and will we reach the goal of 70% immunized people? The Corriere della Sera today he does the calculations: with the pace that vaccinations are following these days and makes it known that the national average is set around 31 August 2021. But there are many differences between the regions. In Sicily the date is that of September 3.
First of all, it is necessary to know that herd immunity means the achievement within a given population of a minimum level of vaccination coverage such that even people who have not been protected can be considered safe. The minimum threshold for achieving immunity varies from infection to infection. For Covid-19 it is set at 70%. And the projection of the newspaper was obtained by calculating the number of citizens already covered with double doses and crossing them with the trend of the last week of administration, identified region by region, of which an average projected over the next three months was made.
However, the unknowns of the analysis are three:
1) That this average number of bites is, on the whole, constant from here to reaching the threshold of community immunity;
2) That supplies remain constant as now;
3) That the rate of adherence to the vaccination campaign remains unchanged, that is, that over time there is no thinning of the vaccines that would inevitably postpone these projections.
That said, this is the timetable for herd immunity region by region:
- 20 August: Campania;
- 24 August: Abruzzo, Lombardy;
- August 26: Puglia
- 29 and 30 August: Molise and Lazio;
- 1 September: Basilicata;
- 3 September: Friuli Venezia Giulia e Sicily;
- 4 September: Marche;
- 9-16 September: Province of Bolzano, Valle d’Aosta, Sardinia, Liguria, Umbria, Tuscany, Calabria
- 20-22 September: Veneto, Emilia-Romagna, Piedmont
- 20 October: Province of Trento.