Campania, Abruzzo, Lombardy, Puglia, Molise and Lazio – from the data of the last week of inoculations – are doing better than the national average and in addition they have already vaccinated a good part of residents. At this speed they would reach before the end of August, 70% of citizens covered at full cycle (or with the single dose J&J). Campania even on August 20, eleven days before the national average that today we could set at August 31. Abruzzo and Lombardy on 24th August, Puglia on 26th August, Molise on 29th August, Lazio on 30th. All the others exceeded in September, lagging behind the average. It is not a question of a points license, with pass and fail, because all the regions are giving their best and the car is now at full capacity. It is no coincidence that the commissioner yesterday Francesco Figliuolo – at the hearing in the Chamber – asked to raise the bar, with 550 thousand daily injections: 50 thousand more than the previous objective that became structural only from mid-May.
The premise: they are projections that change from day to day, to denote a trend. They crystallized at 5pm yesterday. The methodological note: the curve of a first herd immunity, fixed at 70% of the population, was obtained by calculating the number of citizens already covered with double doses by crossing them with the trend of the last week of administration, identified region by region, of which was averaged over the next three months. The unknowns of the analysis but there are three: 1) That this average number of bites is, on the whole, constant from now until the threshold of community immunity is reached; 2) That the supplies remain constant as now; 3) That the membership rate the vaccination campaign remains unaltered, meaning that over time there is no thinning of the vaccinees that would inevitably postpone these projections.
So the regions a bit ‘in trouble these days can be encouraged to do more and better without disavowing their work. Probably the slowest ones are those that are opening up to the younger age groups with a few days of slippage because they are concentrating on the central bands of these days, those between 50 and 59 years and between 40 and 49 years. This may be the explanation ofEmilia Romagna, which would achieve immunity on 21 September. Or like the Piedmont on September 22, and the Veneto on 20 September, currently two excellences that show a slight slowdown in the last week which is in fact crystallized in the analysis. There Calabria would reach its goal on September 16, the Tuscany on September 14, the Sardinia September 11th as the Liguria, the Market on September 4th. The last one the autonomous province of Trento, on 4 October, where new accessions seem to be holding back in an area where a large part of the population has already been vaccinated with the first dose.
The involvement counts
It is clear that from now on the difference will be the degree of involvement of the communities in the vaccination campaign. Yesterday Figliuolo said he believed it was realistic to reach 80% immunity by mid-September on an audience of 54.3 million Italians aged 12 and over. Means that to take the country out of the emergency, 80% or approximately 43.4 million should receive the double dose. At the moment there are more than 18 million to the 25 million Italians who have already received one. It means – net of the incidence of the single-dose J&J (which currently accounts for 4% of the doses) – at least 34 million injections. To which to add over 11 million reminders. With 45-46 million shots we will therefore achieve immunity. Until yesterday we have made almost 38.4 million, but we have covered most of the over 60s, the most incentivized to join. We are therefore less than half the battle. But now even the youngest must do it, theoretically less motivated even for a Covid lethality index judged irrelevant. Social and relational networks will count more and more: family and friends. Models that will indicate the direction.