There is a number that has now become decisive. Because it allows us to calculate when we will come out of the emergency without any doubt: 50 million. Like the doses to be administered to achieve herd immunity in the country. Attached to 70% of resident Italians (42 million) to which to add at least 70% of the 2.3 million children, between 12 and 15 years, whose coverage with Pfizer has just been allowed by AIFA. The statistical office of the commissioner structure, led by General Francesco Figliuolo, at work. Why having administered 604,689 doses on Friday 4th June, a new record of the vaccination campaign, opens up new scenarios. And they circulate new projections that would even make it possible to anticipate the achievement of collective immunity at the end of August upon the occurrence of two unavoidable conditions.
Goals and trust
There are two unknowns:
1) What even among young people, now up to the age of 12, the vaccine becomes an absolute priority not to have to (or be able to) procrastinate. If adhesion to the campaign became as large as possible – even among those not at risk of Covid lethality – at that point the goal would be achievable according to a trivial algebraic calculation;
2) That the supplies of vaccines – expected in abundance from July onwards (at the rate of 31 million per month until the end of September) – are respected also in anticipation of the green light for the German vaccine to mRna Curevac which will enrich supplies.
Figliuolo believes that the target hit on Friday shows that the Regions are now able to reach it. Six hundred thousand shots a day means 18 million a month. For three months it makes 54 million. The goal of 50 million therefore becomes achievable in less than three months. To be precise: two months and twenty-two days. Or, at least, this is the wish. Why the first doses are not as calculable as the boosters. The first administrations depend on the membership rate of Italians, even among the very young. The latter are automatic because they reveal an already manifest will of the vaccinator.
The numbers of the calls
We have currently vaccinated 24,467,400 Italians with one dose at 5pm yesterday. We have covered 12,804,704 in a complete cycle (here the updated data or in real time, ed). Excluding our compatriots who have received J&J monodose (848.561), the calls to be administered are the result of a subtraction that gives this result: 10.814.135. To reach the 44 million herd immunity, there are 19,532,600 Italians left who must receive two doses (or one with J&J) to which to add the almost 11 million reminders: the bill, as mentioned, makes about 50 million.
Comparison with Europe
Italy currently ranks second overall in Europe in terms of fully vaccinated population – those 12.8 million full-cycle Italians – immediately after Germany and ahead of France and Spain, communicates Commissioner Figliuolo. But there is another calculation the general is wondering about: the rate of vaccinated people per 100 inhabitants. a percentage number, proportional to the total population, which gives the coverage of the campaign. The statistical office is working on it these days.
The most fragile
The coverage of the most at risk, that is, those over 60, continues swiftly even if there is a number that still does not allow us peaceful dreams: there are 3.4 million Italians aged 60 and over who have not yet received a dose. They are certainly suspicious, because the campaign has been running for a while and so are the reservations. The commissioner thinks that – net of the more than 2 million between 60 and 69 years not yet vaccinated which are currently decreasing at the rate of 320 thousand a week – involved by general practitioners. Active (and pedagogical) work is needed that goes beyond this emergency phase built on the large vaccination hubs.
Covid vaccines: insights
The case of Lombardy
It must be said that Lombardy is giving a boost to the countryside. From mid-March onwards, the regional system got into another gear. It weighs more than one sixth of full-cycle vaccines: 2,283,164. Friday dragged the country with over 103,000 stings. For this – says the councilor for welfare Letizia Moratti – we are fast approaching 70% of the vaccinated population. A percentage that would mean the achievement of community immunity. He has already covered with a dose over three-quarters between the ages of 70 and 79 and half of the fifties: 813,627.
June 6, 2021 (change June 6, 2021 | 07:31)
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