Will Covid return in winter? The expert’s answer

Will Covid return in winter? The expert’s answer
Will Covid return in winter? The expert’s answer

The approach of summer makes us seem to be in a period of respite, but one of the questions that most grieves us about the Sars-CoV-2 pandemic concerns the end of the summer season and, in particular, the drop in temperatures : will Covid return in winter?

Unfortunately, the imminent future cannot be predicted with absolute certainty, but some estimates are already possible and also quite concrete: here’s what the expert says.

Who is the expert

To speak and to answer the question is Franco Locatelli, Italian doctor and academic at the head of the Higher Health Council since February 2019 and coordinator of the Scientific Technical Committee since March this year.

According to the CTS coordinator, the data concerning the pandemic are now to be considered consolidated in the direction of one “Very marked reduction of new cases” which is the most important thing when it comes to severe and fatal forms of Sars-CoV-2.

Will Covid return in winter?

According to the opinion of the head of the Superior Health Council, the answer to this question could be negative: therefore, Covid will not return in the winter (if all the population continues to pay attention).

This is what Locatelli declares during an interview with the newspaper Republic, remarking positively that – according to the estimates – “Next autumn will not be like what we experienced in 2020”.

The CTS coordinator, however, also reminds us that we must continue to have responsibility and prudence because the goal really becomes reality. In fact – again in the words of the head of the Higher Health Council – not continuing to be prudent now would mean helping to frustrate the vaccination campaign.

Why Covid will not return in the winter

It is precisely in the success of the vaccination campaign that what would be the “turning point” is identified so that Covid does not return in winter. In fact, to date 40% of the Italian population has received at least one dose of vaccine and 21% have completed the entire vaccination cycle.

This means that, with good prospects, for the winter we should not find ourselves in a dramatic situation like the one we experienced in 2020, on the contrary: with the pace that the vaccination campaign is having, at the moment there is strong positivity for winter 2021.

Waiting for the openings paid off on the numbers of infections

As for reopening, “Obviously the reasoned risk with which they were designed” it was not then “So little solid” as someone had pointed out, he says Locatelli.

The data are undoubtedly positive: among the most significant there is the cumulative incidence, a factor that has decreased considerably in the last period.

In fact, to date, there are 32 cases of Covid per 100 thousand inhabitants every week.

Admissions to intensive care wards are also in drastic decline. Today, continues the CTS coordinator, incoming cases in intensive care they no longer reach the over 3,000 mark of last year.

And the Covid variants?

Locatelli declares that as far as the variants of Covid are concerned, the strategy is act in time with the completion of the vaccination campaign.

The danger of variants – continues the coordinator of the CTS – it can be contained precisely with the vaccine: “Vaccines at least control” the variants, he says and this is it “An evidence”.

Furthermore, vaccines prevent in any case from the occurrence of more serious forms of the disease, whatever the type of variant.

The obligation of the mask

On vaccines, Locatelli continues, the country seems to give a good and prompt response and the willingness to access the current vaccination campaign is really great. This is a positive factor without a doubt, but a gradual path.

Even if people have a desire to “Emancipate” from this new object for everyday life, to ensure that Covid does not return during the next winter, we must continue with caution in the summer. “Let’s wait another month, a month and a half” for the mask; We’ll see.

Locatelli – based on the numbers – says he is, however, optimistic: with a mask, an increasingly rapid vaccination campaign and ever wider membership and attention from all Italians, Covid will not return in winter.

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