L’AQUILA – “The hypothesis is taking shape that the drastic reduction in infections that we fortunately find in recent weeks cannot have been caused by vaccinations, still too few, among younger people. Instead, it is likely that covid has replaced the normal flu and has become a seasonal virus. Now we can therefore breathe a sigh of relief, but the vaccination campaign must be accelerated as much as possible, in order to be ready for a possible return of the virus, with renewed power, in the autumn ”.
This was supported by the director general of the Abruzzo Regional Health Agency (ASR), Pierluigi Cosenza, a doctor from L’Aquila who is part of the working group set up by the Istituto Superiore di Sanità (Iss) called to develop a report on the topic of Long Covid.
Cosenza states that he is “not a virologist”, but “a doctor who studies the phenomena”, in constant contact with the covid-19 experts, at a regional and national level, and exposes a hypothesis that would explain the drastic decline in positive cases that has been occurring for a few weeks. Yesterday in Abruzzo there were only 35 new infections, and in Italy 2,483 with a percentage compared to swabs of 1.1%. Hospitalizations and the number of victims also collapse, always proportional to that of infections, returning to numbers since the beginning of the second wave of the pandemic, or last October.
This is while the vaccination campaign took off, exceeding 35 million doses, with over 12 million receiving two doses, therefore immunized. Therefore, the hypothesis that the collapse of the infections was the vaccines, which certainly played an important role, Cosenza agrees, but which do not fully explain the phenomenon, is therefore legitimate.
“There is a fact to take into consideration – argues the doctor -: in the first wave it was mainly the elderly who were infected, while in the second wave the virus affected younger people to a much greater extent, but these were vaccinated only minimally, unlike the elderly, and yet even among them the infections have collapsed ”.
So Cosenza continues in his reasoning, “as happened with other viruses, it could have happened that even the covid has become seasonal, and acts in the autumn and winter, to disappear in the spring and summer, as happens with the flu. After all, it also happened last year, and this year there could be the counter-proof, which at the moment we do not have. This decline in infections, also based on the projections on the progress of vaccinations, no one had really foreseen it, and there was the motivated fear that the reopening would have very negative effects, with new dramatic peaks. Instead, there have been reopening, but the infections have drastically dropped “.
All the more reason, Cosenza affirms with determination, “it is necessary to continue with mass vaccination, especially aimed at children, without whom it will not be possible to achieve, numbers in hand, herd immunity. We must in fact prepare for a possible new wave in the autumn, and the only weapon we have are vaccines, in addition to responsible behavior. With the hope that in the autumn the covid will reappear as a normal flu, weakened and manageable, destined to join the ranks of endemic viruses. A hope, I repeat, we still do not have the certainty of having emerged from this dramatic pandemic emergency ”.
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