Covid: in Italy over 23 thousand cases, deaths peak at Easter

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New cases of infection decrease very slowly virus SarsCoV2 in Italy, while deaths are still increasing, even if expert analyzes indicate that the peak is now very close and could be reached on Easter weekend.

This is a positive prospect in a still complex situation, where case numbers are still very high and hospitalizations have now exceeded the alert threshold relating to hospital capacity. In the background, then, there is always the unknown of the variants and the role they could have in a further recovery in the circulation of the virus.

Data from the Ministry of Health indicate that i new positive cases were 23,649, slightly down on the 23,904 of the previous day. They were identified thanks to 356,085 tests, including molecular and rapid antigenic; consequently, the positivity rate was also 6.6%, down by 0.2% compared to 6.8% the previous day.

Among the regions that recorded the greatest increase in 24 hours was the Lombardy, with 4,483 new cases, followed by Piedmont (2,584), Puglia (2,369), Campania (2,258), Lazio (1,838), Veneto (1,633), Tuscany (1,631) and Sicily (1,282). The number of deaths still rises, with 501 against 467 24 hours earlier. “Towards the end of this week, the peak of the curve of the average incidence of deaths in Italy is expected”, observes the mathematician Giovanni Sebastiani, of the Mauro Picone Institute for Calculation Applications of the National Research Council (Cnr-Iac).

For the physicist Enzo Marinari we must always consider «the interval of 15-20 days that usually separates the date of the onset of symptoms and that of deaths: a sort of natural delay. On the hospitalization front, those in the intensive care records a slight decline for the third consecutive day and reached a total of 3,681, 29 less in 24 hours in the daily balance between entries and exits and 244 new entries against 283 the previous day. Patients with symptoms are a total of 28,949. These are numbers that are putting a strain on hospitals, as the Gimbe Foundation observes in its monitoring for the week from 24 to 30 March.

“The alert thresholds for the occupancy of beds by Covid patients in the medical area (over 40%) and in intensive care (over 30%) are exceeded at national level, reaching respectively 44% and 41%”, notes Renata Gili, Head of Health Services Research at the Gimbe Foundation. Finally, there are ten regions that have passed the threshold value for the medical area and 13 those who passed it for intensive care. In particular, Covid hospitalizations in intensive care units exceed 40% in Puglia, Friuli Venezia Giulia, Umbria, Tuscany, Molise and Lazio; they exceed 50% in Piedmont, in the autonomous province of Trento and in Emilia-Romagna; they record values ​​higher than 60% in Lombardy and in the Marche.

The results of the analysis of the Instant Report Covid-19 of the High School of Economics and Management of Health Systems of the Catholic University (Altems) are on the same line, according to which the saturation rate of intensive care by 29 March it was reached and surpassed by nine regions: Abruzzo, Lazio, Umbria, Puglia, Friuli-Venezia Giulia, Emilia-Romagna, Lombardy, Piedmont and Marche.

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