Covid: “Almost zero deaths in mid-July. And the Coronavirus will be like the flu”

Covid: “Almost zero deaths in mid-July. And the Coronavirus will be like the flu”
Covid: “Almost zero deaths in mid-July. And the Coronavirus will be like the flu”

Rome, 5 May 2021 – “By mid-July, Italy will also reduce the lethality of the virus by 90%”. For Matteo Villa, an ISPI researcher, our country is still lagging behind the United States, Israel or the United Kingdom, but the path is the right one. “We are also experiencing a collapse in deaths. Eight out of ten doses of the vaccine go to the over 60s, and by the end of June we should be able to protect all the people most at risk of death. Covid will become as dangerous as the ‘ seasonal flu “. Green pass: how it works and how to get it From AstraZeneca to Pfizer: how many days after Covid coverage If we had protected the elderly right away, could this moment have come earlier? “We made a mistake in January …

Rome, May 5, 2021 – “By mid-July too Italy will bring down lethality 90% of the virus “ Matteo Villa, ISPI researcher, our country is still lagging behind the United States, Israel or the United Kingdom, but the path is the right one. “We are also experiencing a collapse in deaths. Eight out of ten doses of the vaccine go to the over 60s, and by the end of June we should be able to protect all the people most at risk of death. Covid will become as dangerous as the ‘ seasonal flu “.

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If we had protected the elders right away, could this moment have come earlier?

“In January we made the wrong strategy. We accelerated on healthcare, even if it was important, but left behind the most fragile of all. We lost almost a month and a half of time. If we had operated differently, we would have avoided 13 thousand deaths, instead of the 7 thousand that we have estimated. But now we are doing really well, we are using the doses we have as best we can. “

For Sileri by the end of the month there will be 15-20 deaths per day. Is it realistic?

“I expect around 50. With the reopenings, unlike Germany and the United Kingdom, we started a little early, without waiting for the virus to be low”.

Will hospitalizations also drop?

“By mid-July the possibility of ending up in intensive care should drop by 75%, while that of ending up in hospital by 65%. This means that in July, if the virus were to start circulating again for some reason as in October, instead of 4 thousand people admitted to intensive care we could only have a thousand, with much less pressure on hospitals “.

Last week we hit the milestone of half a million vaccine doses injected per day. But then the numbers immediately dropped. According to your calculations, when will we get to full capacity?

“After mid-May. Today we are around 410-420 thousand doses. In any case, the half million doses is a symbol. The vaccination campaign, which was saved by Pfizer, given that AstraZeneca deliveries are hiding, goes good even with these figures. At first we estimated a drop in lethality by the end of June, but we found that vaccines protect against death not 99% of cases, but 85%. For this we had to revise the estimates. . Missed deliveries have something to do with it up to a certain point. “

By the way, how many fewer doses did we get?

“In the first quarter, 28 million was expected. There was 14 million in revenue. In the second quarter, it should have been 56 million, but according to our estimates it will be 40 million.”

At this rate, when will we achieve so-called herd immunity?

“After September, but it is a false target. In the rest of the young world, Covid will continue to circulate. In Africa half the population is under the age of 19. They will not receive any vaccines and new variants will continue to appear. In rich countries, the the objective will be to safeguard the most fragile people with recalls, as happens with seasonal flu “.

You talked about variants, is Italy doing a good job to keep them under control?

“No, unfortunately. There is a report that is published monthly or even more. This means that, unlike the UK which does a meticulous job on this aspect, we only notice the presence of the variants when they have already arrived. Fortunately, having the vaccines is not too bad. “

Read also:

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Travel rules: the EU widens its meshes

Draghi: “Green pass for Italy from mid-May. European at the end of June”

RSA and family visits: green light by May

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