“We will exceed the quota of one thousand hospitalizations” – Corriere.it

“We will exceed the quota of one thousand hospitalizations” – Corriere.it
“We will exceed the quota of one thousand hospitalizations” – Corriere.it
from Gianni Santucci

The forecasts on the incidence of infections: from 135 to over 230. Hospitals, pressure is growing. Intensive care is holding up, thanks to vaccines. The experts: steady but not yet exponential increase

The spread and consequences of the variante Omicron for now, unknowns remain. Instead, there is a concrete probability that in two weeks Lombardy can reach “yellow zone” numbers, and start at Christmas in the first range of measures for the containment of the virus. The data above all say so on the incidence of new cases of disease per 100 thousand inhabitants. Yesterday Lombardy was at 135; the forecasts of “Made” model, the monitoring system developed by the experts of the Italian Association of Epidemiology, estimates that in two weeks we can reach above 230. Quite assumed that the threshold of 15 per cent of occupancy of beds in the ordinary Covid wards of hospitals is also exceeded. It is not as likely that the limit will also be exceeded for the last indicator, 10 percent of places occupied in intensive care. In the overall picture, the epidemic continues to expand, even if there are some signs of a slowdown: therefore a «fragile» scenario, or in any case at risk, in the event of the spread of a variant whose power is not yet known.

The slow wave

We need to focus at the moment on two growth curves, which still have an upward trend. New positives across the region rose 29 percent in the first week of November, the increase shot up and held at 60 percent in the middle weeks, returning to just below 30 percent in the past 7 days. Translated into absolute numbers: at the beginning of November throughout Lombardy there were on average about 600 new infected persons per day, today the new positives are more than triple, or more than 1,900 every 24 hours.

It sounds like a surge, but it’s not (for sure not in the same proportions) if we consider what happened a November 2020, when in just over a month they went from a few hundred to over 10 thousand new infected a day. An even clearer development if we consider the “block” data: in the whole of the first week of November, the new positives were about 4 thousand, in the second 6,400, in the third just over 10 thousand, in the last about 12 thousand. Numbers that continue to increase, but without “exploding”. A consistent but slow wave. A growth that is still linear, which at the moment does not show exponential traits.

This is why in two weeks the incidence on 100,000 inhabitants could rise to over 200, but without touching altitudes above 500 as happens last autumn or spring. Such a level of infected with respect to the population would certainly be yellow, or even orange: for the moment, however the pressure on hospitals remains contained.

The pressure in the wards

Vaccines are proving their effectiveness in containing the most serious consequences of the disease, preventing the mass of infections from linearly translating into hospitalizations and deaths. The patients admitted to ordinary Covid wards are today 789, 12 per cent of the 6,571 beds available. The threshold of the yellow zone is at 15, therefore to 985 occupied beds. In the last two weeks, the balance of hospitalized patients (between those who enter the ward and those who are discharged) has increased by 348. If the increase continues with the same trend, or if only the smallest increase of the last week were replicated (plus 123), within 14 days the number of hospitalized would certainly be over 15 per cent of places. According to analysts, this is likely to happen.

Why do you enter yellow zone however, it is necessary that the three indicators are simultaneously exceeded, and this does not necessarily happen for intensive care. To date, 91 beds are occupied, and in the progression we see a minimum increase for most of the month, with a growth of 50 percent in the last week, when hospitalized patients went from 61 to 91 (with 52 new entries and 22 deaths or resignations). The threshold for the yellow zone is 10 percent, therefore for Lombardy 153 hospitalized. There is still some margin. If in the next two weeks we remain below that threshold, it will mean that the epidemic has started to slow down.

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November 29, 2021 (change November 29, 2021 | 08:13)

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