Coronavirus, mortality in Lazio: the Lumsa study

In Lazio there is no longer an excess mortality caused by the Covid, and the region at the moment does not risk the yellow zone despite the high incidence due mostly to well-defined outbreaks “: this is what Professor Antonello Maruotti, Professor of Statistics at the Lumsa University, co-founder of StatGroup19, an inter-academic group of statistical studies on pandemic from Covid 19.

Estimating the trend in mortality on the data provided by Istat, Professor Maruotti explains that “in our region the excess mortality estimated in the first four months of 2021 was equal to 10.1%, has practically disappeared since May”.

In the analysis by age group, the statistical model showed that “for the age group 65-74, an excess of mortality equal to 18.5% in the first four months of the year was subsequently eliminated in the period between May and August”, while for the 75-84 year old class, “compared to a figure of 9.8% in the January-April period, in the following four-month period a statistically significant excess of mortality was not estimated”. over 85 and under 15 “there was no statistically significant excess of mortality for the entire period” and for the 15-64 category “we went from an estimated excess of mortality of 12.3% in the first four months to a figure statistically not significant in the following months “.

“This scenario – concludes Professor Maruotti -, as well as in a small part by the so-called harvesting effect, seems to have been favored by the timing of the vaccination campaign which, favoring the over 85 and only following the other age groups, seems to have played a role key in the reduction of the excess mortality figure which since May has been zero, or reduced to values ​​so low as not to be statistically significant “.


Coronavirus mortality Lazio Lumsa study

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