Covid, infections and hospitalizations increase: Italy divided into three. Who risks yellow

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In Italy, as in much of Europe, all the curves of the Covid-19 epidemic are slowly returning to rise: positive cases are increasing, as are deaths and hospitalizations in intensive care units and ordinary wards, while the total number of positive cases is approaching 100,000. The fourth wave is less powerful than in other European countries thanks to the shield of the high number of vaccinations (we are 83.7% over 12 and 76.3% of the total immunized population). But it also arrived in Italy. The thresholds that decide relegation from the white zone (the one without restrictions), in which all of Italy is today, are still distant. The growing numbers, if confirmed in the coming weeks, suggest however that the country could begin to turn yellow (mandatory outdoor mask, provided in the yellow zone and capacity of theaters, cinemas and stadiums to be reduced to 50 percent ) already at the end of November.

The territorial distribution

The situation is different at the territorial level, with more virtuous regions, others at medium risk and a small group at greater yellow risk. The latter are those with two characteristics: the first parameter set for relegation to the yellow zone has been exceeded (that of 50 weekly infections per 100 thousand inhabitants); near or exceeded one of the two hospital alert thresholds (both must be exceeded to end up in yellow): 10% of beds occupied in intensive care and 15% in other wards.

The Coronavirus map in Italy and in the world


More critical situation in Friuli and Alto Adige

The most critical area continues to be the North East. South Tyrol e Friuli Venezia Giulia stand out for contagions. The first holds the record in Italy of 260 new cases per 100 thousand inhabitants. Friuli Venezia Giulia follows closely with 197. A figure driven above all by the critical situation in Trieste (479), the fulcrum of the no green pass protest. More under control the situation in Walk (72). But the latter, according to Agenas data, also exceed the threshold of intensive care (we are at 11%). Same percentage of resuscitations (11%) occupied by Covid patients in Friuli Venezia Giulia, with the other departments already full to 10 percent. So much so that Massimiliano Fedriga, president of the Region and of the Regions Conference spotted: “We will be in the yellow zone in a short time if we continue like this”. In Alto Adige, on the other hand, the main concerns are given by the occupancy rate of the ordinary wards (13%) while the situation in intensive care is currently under control (4%).

In the intermediate range, pay attention to Calabria and Veneto

In the middle range, on the other hand, there are all those regions in which only one parameter is exceeded. First of all, the Veneto, with 105 cases per 100 thousand inhabitants. Here the hospitalization rate is still low (ICU 5% and ordinary wards 4%), but ICU occupancy increased by 50% in one week (from 30 to 46 patients). The Calabria, with 64 weekly cases per 100 thousand inhabitants, but with 11% of hospitalizations in ordinary wards (and 4% in intensive care). And the Sicily (10% intensive care and 5% medical area). For the rest, these are regions with just over 50 weekly cases per 100 thousand inhabitants and aligned around the national average of 5% of hospitalizations in intensive care and 6% in other wards. Among these are made worse Lazio (6% intensive care and 8% ordinary wards) e Umbria (7% intensive care and 6% ordinary wards). While they are better Lombardy (3% intensive care and 6% ordinary wards), Emilia Romagna e Piedmont (4% intensive care and 4% ordinary wards). Aligned with the national average Liguria e Tuscany.

Sardinia and Molise the most virtuous

Finally, the virtuous group includes the regions that not only do not exceed any parameter, neither in terms of infections nor in terms of hospitalizations, but are also below the national average. It is about Sardinia e Molise. they have the lowest incidence in Italy (respectively 25 and 20 cases per 100 thousand inhabitants) and the least worrying hospital situation (in both cases 3% of hospitalizations both in intensive care and in ordinary wards).

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