Lumsa study, in Lazio eliminated excess mortality from Covid: Region does not risk yellow zone

Rome – “In Lazio there is no longer an excess mortality caused by Covid, the region at the moment does not risk the yellow zone despite the high incidence due mostly to well-defined outbreaks”.

This was stated by Professor Antonello Maruotti, Professor of Statistics at the LUMSA University, co-founder of the StatGroup19, an inter-academic group of statistical studies on the Covid 19 pandemic, who, estimating the mortality trend on the data provided by ISTAT, explains: “In our region the excess mortality estimated in the first four months of 2021 was 10.1%, it has practically disappeared since May. In the analysis that sees the stratification by age group, the statistical model highlighted:

– for the age group 65-74, an excess of mortality equal to 18.5% in the first four months of the year was subsequently eliminated in the period between May and August;

– for the age group 75-84, against a figure of 9.8% in the January-April period, in the following four-month period a significant excess of mortality from a statistical point of view was not estimated;

– as regards the over 85 and under 15, there was no statistically significant excess of mortality for the entire period;

– for the 15-64 category we went from an estimated mortality excess of 12.3% in the first four months to a statistically insignificant figure in the following months.

This scenario, as well as a small part of the so-called harvesting effect, seems to have been favored by the timing of the vaccination campaign which, favoring the over 85 and only following the other age groups, seems to have played a key role in reducing the mortality figure. in excess that since May has been zero, or reduced to values ​​so low as not to be statistically significant “

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