Covid, this is how it would have gone without vaccines. Professor Rector’s mathematical model: “Red zone already in August”

Covid, this is how it would have gone without vaccines. Professor Rector’s mathematical model: “Red zone already in August”
Covid, this is how it would have gone without vaccines. Professor Rector’s mathematical model: “Red zone already in August”

Without the vaccines, with the criteria in place for the assignment of colors, we would have ended up fired in red zone in August“. Per Enrico Rector, Professor of Econometrics in the Department of Economics and Management of theUniversity of Padua, the effect of the mass immunization campaign is stark. Although the protection from contagion is not effective at 100%, vaccines reduce the possibility of contracting in severe form the illness. The latest data then make it possible to state that the double inoculation – depending on age – avoids death from 92,7 al 95,2% of cases and admission to intensive care in 95% of infected subjects. The difference is significant compared to theautumn 2020: “We know that the past month – August – is the period less favorable to the circulation of the virus – explains the teacher 61enne, consulted by The Corriere della Sera – imagine what would have happened now “.

Already in August Patrizio Pezzotti, director of the Department of Epidemiology, Mathematical Models and Biostatistics of the Infectious Diseases Department of theHigher Institute of Health (Iss) had speculated that last year’s peaks would not be reached in September and October. The thesis is shared by a large part of the scientific community. To understand how the Pandemic will evolve in Italy, Rector – who had already tried to demonstrate, through numbers, the need for lockdowns – developed a model based on the numbers of the “Surveillance bulletin of the ISS“. He schematized them in a table, reporting in four columns of the first row the number of positive tests against Covid, of hospitalized with symptoms, hospitalized in intensive care and of deaths. He then also distinguished the data by age group, specifying that the observation period is “full summer”. The numbers that reflect the current situation were then compared with a second scenario: that without the administration of vaccines. “In the second line I operated the usual proportion: I applied the contagion / hospitalization / death rates observed for the unvaccinated to the entire population – he says – The difference between the first and second lines tells us how many troubles we have avoidedor thanks to the fact that most of the residents have agreed to be vaccinated ”.

“From 13th August to 12th September we had 974 admissions to intensive care – continues Rector, former dean of Economics at the Venetian university – but without inoculations they would have been 4,988 ″. The figure is also surprising for deaths: “From July 30th to August 29th we had some 1.443, while without the vaccine they would have been 9.176“. But there is another even more interesting fact, namely that “from 20 August to 19 September, without vaccines, 346,000 people would have contracted Covid-19 – explains the statistician who has published numerous essays in international journals such as The Journal of Econometrics, The Review of Economics and Statistics e The Journal of the Royal Statistical Society – Basically they would have 145 weekly infections per 100,000 inhabitants“. To those who protest in the square, he says, “it is completely clear that if we are in white zone and not in the red zone and, therefore, free to move, it is only thanks to the fact that most of their fellow citizens have been vaccinated ”.


Covid vaccines Professor Rectors mathematical model Red zone August

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