The intervention of the Draghi government of 3.4 billion euros on energy bills has no impact on utilities which, however, are down on the stock market today (Enel + 0.28%, Snam -2.4%, Terna -2.15% , Italgas -1.08%, A2A -1.04%, Hera -0.99%, Iren -1.34%, Acea -0.89%, Erg -0.53%, Falck Renewables -1.12% ), the only exception being Acsm Agam (+ 2.56%). Yesterday the Council of Ministers gave the green light to a package of measures for the fourth quarter: about 2 billion euros to support electricity bills, of which 700 million euros from CO2 certificates, 500 million from some items of the state budget and 800 million deriving from the cancellation of the system charges of non-domestic / domestic low voltage users.
Again: about 1 billion for gas bills, of which about 480 million attributable to the reduction of VAT to 5% (from 10% and 22% depending on gas consumption) and a further 485 from the reduction of general system costs ; another 450 million will be allocated by the government to support more than 3 million consumers who find themselves in difficult economic conditions.
The Energy Authority will set the rate updates for the fourth quarter. A maneuver that should reduce the expected increase in the cost of electricity and gas bills starting from 1 October by approximately 15-20%. It is also positive that the government, as expected, has not introduced measures that envisage levies on the profits of energy & utilities companies.
“This is positive news for the entire Italian utilities sector, because after the intervention of the Spanish government, the government’s maneuver could have increased the political risk on the entire sector”, underlined Equita Sim. In particular, for the investment company, the news is positive for the companies that could have the greatest long-term benefits (once the effects of hedging are over) from the high prices of electricity and gas (exposure to hydroelectric production and from WTE and to district heating ), that is Iren, A2A, Enel, A2A and among the renewables Erg and Falck which in recent days have suffered from the uncertainty about the risk of possible interventions on hydroelectricity and renewables.
Intesa Sanpaolo does not expect a major impact on the companies under its coverage as the measure will not have negative effects on the players that generate electricity (mainly Enel, A2A, Iren, Erg), while the expected increase, albeit lower, on the supply of energy , of regulated tariffs should have a marginal impact on customer margins (Enel, Acea, A2A, Hera, Iren).
From a fundamentals point of view, the utilities sector trades at attractive multiples: the average p / e of the sector according to Bloomberg is around 18.4 times and the expected return in terms of dividends is among the highest: dividend / yield of 4 , 40%. The fall of these days has brought the Stoxx Utility index (today at 375.84 points, -0.43%) towards the first discriminating area in the 380/360 points range, highlighted Websim which maintains a positive view on the sector, also by virtue of the high remuneration in terms of dividends. “It is therefore suggested to buy European utilities with a view to diversification at current market prices, ready to double in the event of a decline towards 360 points or, in the opposite direction, at the first close above 420 points. Stop loss in the event of a decline below 355 points “, concluded Websim. (All rights reserved)