Covid in Emilia Romagna: graphs, data and trends from January to July 2021 – Chronicle

Bologna 1 August 2021 – i contagion – at least until June -, i decrease admissions to intensive care, but the number of processed swabs. This is the balance sheet of the Covid-19 pandemic in the first seven months of 2021 in Emilia Romagna. Which, as emerged from the last weekly monitoring by ISS and the Ministry of Health, it is still in the moderate risk range and, despite being in full swing fourth wave, does not risk the yellow zone.

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Employment of terapie intensive it is in fact still well below the critical threshold of 10%. Although, according to the ministerial report, theindice Rt rose to 1,72 and theincidence of cases, which went from 45 to 65.89 per 100 thousand inhabitants.

Despite theincrease in infections in the month of July, from March to June 2021 l‘Emilia Romagna has risen from an average of 2.444 a 99 new cases per day. At the same time, however, the numbers of the activity of tracking of the virus. If in March there was an average of 32,194 daily tampons, in the space of three months the tests have halved. TO July, the average of swabs performed every 24 hours was 17.611.

In general, for this first part of 2021, June was a crucial month in the progress of the pandemic. Indeed, it is then that theEmilia Romagna she went down for the first time below 100 infections daily. A trend that however, starting from 12 July, has been reversed due to the spread of Delta variant. As can be seen from the graph, theEmilia Romagna is now far from the average of June infections, so much so that inlast month recorded on average about 230 cases per day.

Despite the resumption of infections in July, from March to June 2021, Emilia-Romagna had certainly registered a collapse of positives. As the data tell us, the media of the new ones daily infections in January it was equal to 1.522, mentre a February and went down to 1.507.

The boom of positives in Emilia-Romagna, as in the rest of Italy, occurred a March, at the third wave of the pandemic. So, the average of cases every 24 hours has risen to 2.444. A figure that then, from the month of March, began to drop down to about 1.120 new infections per day ad April.

This quick degrowth it also continued in the months of May – 476 average infections every 24 hours – e June, with the average of the new positives which in the latter case dropped to i 99 cases per day. However, this decrease must be compared with another data, that relating to the number of processed swabs from 1 January to 16 July 2021 and therefore the intensity of the screening activity of the Coronavirus in the region.

The monthly average of swabs processed in Emilia Romagna

As can be seen from the graph, the trend of processed swabs in the first six months of 2021 it seems to follow the increase and decrease of infections. When the number of swabs processed increases, the number of infections detected also increases and vice versa.

A March – key month of the third wave of the pandemic, in which the highest numbers were recorded for the new positives – in Emilia Romagna were performed, on average, 32,194 tests per day.

This figure has gradually decreased over the following months. From March to June, in Emilia-Romagna there was a substantial halving of molecular and unsanitary tests processed. Give it over 30mila test from March it has gone to an average of 16.324 tests per day a June up to 17.611 of the month of July, slightly up on the trend of the last three months. Yesterday there were 28,025. Therefore, taking stock of these first seven months of 2021, the infections have drastically collapsed, but at the same time the tracing of the virus seems to have slowed down.

Despite the slowdown in screening activity, it is the rate of positivity – that is the ratio between the number of positive Covid tests and the total number of swabs carried out – which allows us to say that the pandemic is still under control for now. From January 15, 2021, we remind you, rapid tests are also included in the total count of swabs, as provided for in the document of the Ministry of Health relating to the ‘Update of the definition of the Covid-19 case and testing strategies’.

The change in the positive rate of the swabs

A January there was the highest average positivity rate of 2021, equal to 9,3%. This percentage subsequently dropped to February (6.4%), to then go back to March when the monthly average of the positivity rate reached 8.7%. From then on, the value of this indicator dropped to 0.75% in June, then rising to 1.25% at July.

Eyes on 10%. This is the percentage of beds occupied in intensive care that Emilia-Romagna must not overcome in order not to risk passing through yellow zone. This means that, compared to the 760 places available in intensive care, the critical threshold is equal to 76 beds occupied.

The trend of hospitalizations in intensive care in Emilia Romagna

As can be seen from the graph, theEmilia Romagna is below the critical threshold since June 5th, day in which the number of beds occupied in intensive care had dropped from 78 to 68. That decline is part of the more general and rapid emptying of the ICU started four months ago after the peak of admissions recorded on March 25. Back then, the people in intensive were 402 across the region, the highest figure for 2021.

During third wave of the pandemic, within forty days, intensive hospitalizations had more than doubled. From the minimum of 171 beds occupied on February 13th, it has passed, in fact, to 402 hospitalized beds on March 25th.

As mentioned, from the March 25 onwards, the emptying of the hospitals began. To return to the levels of intensive care in February, theEmilia Romagna it took about fifty days. The 1May 3in fact, it dropped below 170 occupied beds, reaching altitude 163. From then on, the numbers in hospitals plummeted further to reach i 14 hospitalized in intensive at the end of July.

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