In the last few hours, for some regions of Italy, the bugbear of the yellow zone has returned. Yeah, the Delta variant – certifies the ISS – is predominant, equal to 95% in Italy, and because of its very high contagiousness it seems to have almost “condemned” Sicily, Sardinia and Lazio to the return of partial restrictions as early as mid-August. Consider that last week the increase in infections on a national basis was more than 100%, in the last seven days it was 64.8 percent. A significant drop, which however does not allow us to avoid the worst scenarios. On the contrary.
But it gets worse. And that worst is analyzed in great detail by The print, which shows what they are the 30-day monitoring forecasts of the Higher Institute of Health, therefore, the forecasts for the end of August (a period in which, in 2020, the infections began to rise significantly and then lead us to the dramatic second wave of October-November).
The point is that the monitoring, which obviously already considers the new criteria on the basis of which the color changes relative to the regions are established, provide that a late August-early September there could be as many as four regions with concrete possibilities to enter the orange zone. The reasons in question are Lazio, Sardinia, Sicily and Veneto, which, as the Turin newspaper points out, in total count 18 million people, or a third of the Italian population.
According to the monitoring figures, based on the trend of infections and hospitalizations, it is considered it is very likely that the four regions in question will exceed the 30% limit by 30 days for intensive care and 40% for ordinary wards, two parameters that would automatically trigger the orange zone, that is the semi-lockdown. Of course, everything will depend on the next few days, which will have to tell us if and how the growth of infections and hospitalizations is holding back. But, as mentioned, so far the scenario is far from rosy.