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The risk is there, but it is difficult to quantify. And reinforcements are on the way anyway, that is another 55 million doses of the vaccine. After the circular from the Ministry of Health which gives peremptory indications onuse of AstraZeneca only on over 60s, risks slowing down the mass vaccination campaign, with the consequent postponement of herd immunity expected at the end of September. But government sources, Ansa reports, affirm that “the Italian vaccination campaign will proceed with the same intensity as before”, given “the wide availability” of “over 55 million Pfizer and Moderna doses»Between now and the end of September.
It is not the only problem on the horizon, because Italy also risks finding millions of doses of Astrazeneca and Johnson & Johnson in the refrigerators unusable. The decision taken yesterday by the Minister of Health Roberto Speranza, on the recommendation of the experts of the Technical Scientific Committee after the death of the 18-year-old Ligurian, has already obliged the Regions to cancel open days, which if they are reorganized will have to “respect the indications for age groups”, and to review the booking agenda. Case apart from Lombardy, which had initially announced that it did not want to follow up on the government’s decision to administer a different vaccine for boosters, “Awaiting an official note from the Ministry of Health and Aifa”, but then backtracked once he received the circular and the position of the Aifa itself.
“I do not make gloomy predictions, I am convinced that we will close in September – said General Figliuolo -, but if we were to add another audience, for example 6-15 years, if Curevac it does not arrive and if there are other obstacles it is clear that we will not make it ». According to the numbers provided by Figliuolo to the CTS, they should arrive by the end of the month still 7.2 million doses of mRNA vaccines (5.8 by Pfizer and 1.4 by Moderna), to which the 45 expected in the third quarter (31 by Pfizer and 14 by Moderna) must be added for a total of 52.2 million. If Curevac’s serum is approved, Italy will have another 6.5 million by the end of September, for a total of 58.7 million doses of mRNA vaccines. The same general already on May 10 had reported that the amount of mRNA vaccines was in danger of being less than needed.
Finally there is theincognita Johnson&Johnson. Within the CTS there was a long discussion between those who wanted to equate it to AstraZeneca and those who instead claimed that there was not enough data and, in the end, this line passed. While considering the similarities, the experts wrote in the report, “the current state of knowledge, the number of just over a million doses administered and the rarity” of thrombosis, “They do not allow to draw conclusive evaluations with respect to the benefit / risk ratio”. However, evaluations could arrive in the coming weeks and change the scenarios, it being understood that in any case this vaccine is already recommended for those aged 60 and over. What is certain is that, again based on the numbers of Figliuolo, they are still there 3.5 million over 60 who have not even had the first dose and 3.9 who have to make the calls.
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