Ftse Mib: beware of vertigo. ENI and Saipem, what to do?

Below is the interview with Fabrizio Brasili, financial analyst, to whom we asked some questions on the current situation of the markets and in particular of Piazza Affari. Anyone wishing to contact Fabrizio Brasili can write to the email address: [email protected]

The race to the top of the stock markets continues: will the current trend continue to accompany us in the short term?

To add to what was reported in the previous interviews, only one important variable remains, that of the increasingly high lows of the various indices.

The progressive narrowing of the fork, always limited in the upper part of the range, and in continuous movement, by the partly psychological and partly resistance barrier, according to the markets, should be noted.

For example, on the Dow Jones we observe that we are now very close both to the resistances of 34,800 / 34,900 points, and to the psychological resistances of 35,000 points, plus absolute maximums.

Ditto on the S & P500, however, struggling with a double level, both of resistances and of the absolute maximums of 4,250 points.
For the S & P500 we will also be able to see a last extension just below the psychological barrier of 4,500 points, but nothing more.

Beware of dizziness and overbought, which would impose a stop up to 4,050 points, without excluding descents of the S & P500 up to 3,820 / 3,830 points, old resistances that have now become new supports.

We fear that the explosive mix of million dollar transaction taxes and capital gains that the Biden administration is about to enact, the huge ever-growing public debt and the inevitable rate hike expected next year, could result in a healthy and abrupt downsizing of the prices of the US indices and consequently, albeit to a lesser extent, on the European lists.

The Ftse Mib also reached new highs of the year: are there the conditions for further extensions?

On our main price list we are even on a triple statistical level: psychological resistance of 25,500 points, on whose strike, however, numerous Call contracts hang, in the short term and not only, on which there will be a battle between buyers and sellers.

Then for the Ftse Mib there is also a strong medium-long term resistance at 25,500 / 25,600 points, on which many of these options have been traded, and finally at the current levels we are on the absolute maximums of 2020/2021.

For the Ftse Mib we always expect a transfer of about 10% wide and therefore always towards area 22,500 / 22,600, which, if reached with the usual speed typical of the short, would cause an immediate reaction from coverings and closing operations and very little money. fresh, with an index even up to 22,800 / 22,900 points.

Unicredit and Intesa Sanpaolo are well set to go up again: which of the two do you recommend to focus on now?

We believe it is useless to “bet” excessively on Unicredit, signaling at best a combination with Banco BPM and BPER Banca, after their already complicated merger, and at worst, the bitter and indigestible morsel of Banca MPS.

Unicredit is also on market prices that are too tight and doubled in 2020/2021 for no reason, other than that of the sector and driven by Intesa Sanpaolo.

Much better to start accumulating the number one in the sector, which still has generous dividends to distribute, namely Intesa Sanpaolo.

Certainly better on a general reversal of the market, but above all, on the same day as the dividend ex-dividend.

Oil on new tops of the year supports ENI and Saipem: what is your view on these two stocks?

Here maximum attention!

WTI oil, the one we most followed and used for analysis, reached the area of ​​maximum extension, medium-term resistance and the maximum of the last 12 months, just under $ 70 a barrel, Brent just over $ 72.

Among other things, take profit areas already reported repeatedly by us, even at the beginning of the year.

Still caution on this instrument, which together with the dollar is still very complicated to decipher in its sudden movements, often unknown to the strong hands themselves.

Among the oil companies, we prefer ENI, with an average risk-benefit ratio, and Saipem with a much higher ratio.

Let’s approach a short operation on ENI, suggesting to intervene between 10.25 / 10.30 and 10.45 / 10.50 euros, however the highest of the last 12 months.

With options, on the other hand, buy a put strike 10 / 10.50 at the Money, expiring in September, also financing yourself in part or in full by selling a call strike at 10.50 / 11, always expiring in September.
However, always followed by professional experts, also for other and further solutions and advice.

The euro-dollar has recovered after the US job data: do you expect new positive developments?

For the euro-dollar, paradoxically, the discourse may seem a little simpler, so to speak!

Meanwhile, we note that before the US employment data released last Friday, the cross was trying to break the short-term resistance at 1.2250, with medium-term objectives at 1.23, and then in the medium-long term even just below 1. , 25.

However, the data suddenly strengthened the dollar, even reaching 1.2120, and then recovered with normal hedges up to the current 1.2150 / 1.2160.

The trend for the dollar, however, remains always negative, with the euro-dollar which should rise towards 1.225, and then await news from the FED, on expected inflation, rates, and decreased stimuli.

Trend-online Deputy Director, born in 1978.
After completing his studies at the Classical High School “Antonio Calamo” of Ostuni I entered the world of economics.
For about twenty years I have been dealing with Stock Exchange and Finance. After having worked as a financial promoter for several years, in 2005 I joined the Trend-online team as an editor, to later become deputy director of the cylinder head. Among other countless activities, I take care of maintaining relationships with all the experts, analysts and traders, consulted daily by Trend-online.

My motto is? “Life is like a mirror, if you look at it smiling it will smile at you”.

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