Unicredit and Intesa Sanpaolo: the new strategy. What is buy?

Unicredit and Intesa Sanpaolo: the new strategy. What is buy?
Unicredit and Intesa Sanpaolo: the new strategy. What is buy?

At Piazza Affari, this first session of the new week was experienced positively by the protagonists of the banking sector, some of whom show greater relative strength compared to the Ftse Mib.

Unicredit takes flight and stands out on the Ftse Mib

Leading the increases is Unicredit which also conquers the first position in the basket of blue chips and redeems itself with a nice rise after the drop of 0.78% last Friday.

Today the stock has immediately taken the path of earnings and in the last minutes it is presented at 10.794 euros, close to the intraday highs, with a rally of 2.86% and over 9.7 million shares transited on the market up to now, against the average of the last 30 days of around 22.5 million.

Intesa Sanpaolo: the only minus sign among banks today

The performance of Intesa Sanpaolo is very different, which goes against the trend of the Ftse Mib and is the only one in the banking sector to be preceded by the minus sign today.

The stock, back from seven consecutive sessions on the rise, after closing last Friday’s with an increase of 0.18%, today drops by 0.38% to € 2.471, with over 31.5 million shares traded, compared to at the average of the last month of approximately 94 million.

BTP and Spread in check

It should be noted that in general the banking sector does not seem to be affected in any way today by the negative indications coming from the bond front.

The BTP-Bund spread widens decisively and shows a 5.51% rally to 109.1 basis points and the sales hit the BTPs, so much so that the 10-year yield leaps forward by 2.75% to 0.896%.

Banks under the Jefferies lens

On the other hand, the news from a broker who has changed its strategy on the two securities has influenced the current performance of Unicredit and Intesa Sanpaolo in particular.

Jefferies released a report on southern European banks, expressing itself in positive terms by virtue of the opening of the economies and the boost of the Recovery Fund, two factors that play in favor of credit institutions with a positive outlook on revenues in the wake of volumes of uses.

Intesa Sanpaolo rejected by Jefferies: here’s why

In detail, Jefferies has reserved Intesa Sanpaolo a rejection, changing the “buy” recommendation to “hold”, with a target price of 2.5 euros.

The broker acknowledges that the wealth management trend and the dividends paid by the bank are positive factors, but at the same time does not see upside margins on the consensus estimates in the medium term.

This therefore leads to a more cautious attitude on Intesa Sanpaolo which is now simply to be kept in the portfolio.

Unicredit promoted by Jefferies: the reasons why it is buy now

The view on Unicredit which receives a promotion from Jefferies is much more enthusiastic, with a change of strategy from “hold” to “buy” and a target price increased from 9.3 to 12.25 euros, a value that implies an upside potential of more than 13% compared to the current prices on the Milan Stock Exchange.

There are several reasons that lead analysts to now prefer Unicredit over Intesa Sanpaolo.

If on the one hand the question relating to the strength of Unicredit’s capital cannot yet be considered concluded, on the other Jefferies does not rule out possible surprises on the provisioning front, thanks to more positive assumptions on the volume and revenue front.

Not to forget the expected buy-back plan towards which 30% of the 2021-2023 profits could be channeled.

Finally, to give appeal to Unicredit is also the wait for the next episode of the banking risk, in which the group led by Orcel should play a leading role.

Trend-online Deputy Director, born in 1978.
After completing his studies at the Classical High School “Antonio Calamo” of Ostuni I entered the world of economics.
For about twenty years I have been dealing with Stock Exchange and Finance. After having worked as a financial promoter for several years, in 2005 I joined the Trend-online team as an editor, to later become deputy director of the cylinder head. Among other countless activities, I take care of maintaining relationships with all the experts, analysts and traders, consulted daily by Trend-online.

My motto is? “Life is like a mirror, if you look at it smiling it will smile at you”.

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